Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop north and west of New York City. The worst of the storms will impact the lower Hudson Valley and possibly northeastern New Jersey. While there is moderate to high instability forecast from NYC and points north and west this afternoon, the vertical wind shear profile is weak, which supports the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with the primary threat being damaging winds. Brief heavy rainfall will be a possibility. Localized heavy rainfall may result in minor nuisance/urban and poor drainage flooding.

Current Conditions (Central Park)
Partly Cloudy
Temperature: 84°F
Heat Index: 87°F
Humidity: 59%

Temperatures
Tonight: lows in the upper 60s.
Monday: highs in the upper 70s; lows in the upper 50s.
Tuesday: highs in the upper 70s; lows in the mid 50s.

Precipitation and Timing
The chance of rain tonight is 80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms are likely and expected over the New York City area from this afternoon until about 9:00-10:00 PM tonight, which is when the strongest of any storms should taper off. Some storms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall this evening.

On average, the New York City area can expect ¾ of an inch to 1 inch of total rainfall over the next twenty-four hours. With the training of thunderstorm cells, however, there is the increased possibility of locally higher rainfall totals.

The showers and thunderstorms will start up again from about 4:00 AM Monday morning, lasting until about 10:00-11:00 AM. The heaviest of the rain will be in the morning, and it will gradually taper off from west to east as the day progresses. A few scattered thunderstorms or showers are possible during the afternoon hours, but they are not expected to be widespread or organized.

Winds
Tonight: Southwest, 10 to 15 MPH; some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds.

(YWN Desk – NYC)