The following article by Bret Stephen appears in today’s Wall Street Journal:
Events are fast pushing Israel toward a pre-emptive military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, probably by next spring. That strike could well fail. Or it could succeed at the price of oil at $300 a barrel, a Middle East war, and American servicemen caught in between. So why is the Obama administration doing everything it can to speed the war process along?
At July’s G-8 summit in Italy, Iran was given a September deadline to start negotiations over its nuclear programs. Last week, Iran gave its answer: No.
Instead, what Tehran offered was a five-page document that was the diplomatic equivalent of a giant kiss-off. It begins by lamenting the “ungodly ways of thinking prevailing in global relations” and proceeds to offer comprehensive talks on a variety of subjects: democracy, human rights, disarmament, terrorism, “respect for the rights of nations,” and other areas where Iran is a paragon. Conspicuously absent from the document is any mention of Iran’s nuclear program, now at the so-called breakout point, which both Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his boss Ali Khamenei insist is not up for discussion.
What’s an American president to do in the face of this nonstarter of a document? What else, but pretend it isn’t a nonstarter. Talks begin Oct. 1.
All this only helps persuade Israel’s skittish leadership that when President Obama calls a nuclear-armed Iran “unacceptable,” he means it approximately in the same way a parent does when fecklessly reprimanding his misbehaving teenager. That impression is strengthened by Mr. Obama’s decision to drop Iran from the agenda when he chairs a meeting of the U.N. Security Council on Sept. 24; by Defense Secretary Robert Gates publicly opposing military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities; and by Russia’s announcement that it will not support any further sanctions on Iran.
In sum, the conclusion among Israelis is that the Obama administration won’t lift a finger to stop Iran, much less will the “international community.” So Israel has pursued a different strategy, in effect seeking to goad the U.S. into stopping, or at least delaying, an Israeli attack by imposing stiff sanctions and perhaps even launching military strikes of its own.
Thus, unlike Israel’s air strike against Iraq’s reactor in 1981 or Syria’s in 2007, both of which were planned in the utmost secrecy, the Israelis have gone out of their way to advertise their fears, purposes and capabilities. They have sent warships through the Suez Canal in broad daylight and conducted widely publicized air-combat exercises at long range. They have also been unusually forthcoming in their briefings with reporters, expressing confidence at every turn that Israel can get the job done.
The problem, however, is that the administration isn’t taking the bait, and one has to wonder why. Perhaps it thinks its diplomacy will work, or that it has the luxury of time, or that it can talk the Israelis out of attacking. Alternatively, it might actually want Israel to attack without inviting the perception that it has colluded with it. Or maybe it isn’t really paying attention.
But Israel is paying attention. And the longer the U.S. delays playing hardball with Iran, the sooner Israel is likely to strike. A report published today by the Bipartisan Policy Center, and signed by Democrat Chuck Robb, Republican Dan Coats, and retired Gen. Charles Ward, notes that by next year Iran will “be able to produce a weapon’s worth of highly enriched uranium . . . in less than two months.” No less critical in determining Israel’s timetable is the anticipated delivery to Iran of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft batteries: Israel will almost certainly strike before those deliveries are made, no matter whether an Iranian bomb is two months or two years away.
Such a strike may well be in Israel’s best interests, though that depends entirely on whether the strike succeeds. It is certainly in America’s supreme interest that Iran not acquire a genuine nuclear capability, whether of the actual or break-out variety. That goes also for the Middle East generally, which doesn’t need the nuclear arms race an Iranian capability would inevitably provoke.
Then again, it is not in the U.S. interest that Israel be the instrument of Iran’s disarmament. For starters, its ability to do so is iffy: Israeli strategists are quietly putting it about that even a successful attack may have to be repeated a few years down the road as Iran reconstitutes its capacity. For another thing, Iran could respond to such a strike not only against Israel itself, but also U.S targets in Iraq and the Persian Gulf.
But most importantly, it is an abdication of a superpower’s responsibility to outsource matters of war and peace to another state, however closely allied. President Obama has now ceded the driver’s seat on Iran policy to Prime Minister Netanyahu. He would do better to take the wheel again, keeping in mind that Iran is beyond the reach of his eloquence, and keeping in mind, too, that very useful Roman adage, Si vis pacem, para bellum.
(LINK to Wall Street Journal article)
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19 Responses
It was a personal opinion column on the OP ED page, not an article. Unlike many news media (including virtually all the Jewish ones), the Wall Street Journal distinguishes between its news coverage (very objective, to be taken very seriously), and the “hot air” opinions section (to be taken with a grain of salt).
ברוך השם this was just a column. If a news article in the WSJ said war was imminent, one would be advised to get ready (Israelis clean out bomb shelters – Americans get used to $5/gallon oil).
I agree with Akuperma. I would like to add that because of the convergence of United States and Israeli national interest on the Iranian question, “real politik” in the gut national interest, I find it hard to believe that there is not a high degree of behind the scenes coordination of sttrategy – If Israel goes to war with Iran I believe it will be with American blessings and with the support of American intelligence and logistics.
Si vis pacem, para bellum means: If you want to have peace, you need to be ready to go to war for it.
All we need is Hakodosh Baruch Hu.
Akuperma shouldn’t too quickly bloviate about “hot air”.
#2 Yonason – Respectfully, you are giving FAR too much credit to Obama and his cohorts. They are an inept bunch, AND l’fi ani’as da’ati he is an anti-semite (the Jewish capos in his ranks just being a cover for this). If numerous previous administrations that had much greater foreign affairs know-how, accomplished little or nothing in the middle east, kal v’chomer with this guy. He will (as this article stated) “not lift a finger” militarily to stop Iran, and is even afraid to do anything major in terms of sanctions. Ultimately, Israel will have to deal with this very serious matter with only the help of HaKadosh Baruch Hu. Of course with HIS help, who needs Obama?
I agree with AinOhdMilvado and locknload. Obama is to put it mildly a mixed up college kid. He has very, very inexperienced staffers advising him. Hillary Clinton is at the State Department to keep Bill’s criticism’s mute. The whole world including Obama and the Saudis would much rather see Israeli blood spilled on the battlefield than let’s say Muslim or American blood. So, if the Israelis want to make themselves a target of Iranian retaliation, so be it.
I really, really think that YonasonW. and akuperma have shown that they are great hypocrites. And especially with akuperma, I wonder. The tone and vocabulary of your various posts differs tremendously along with the readiness you are able to respond. Do you share your name and ID number with the rest of your buddies at the Brooklyn headquarters of the Association for Community Action Reform Now as a way of attacking Obama detractors? Just a theory of mine… Seems to me more than one person at times blogs on as akuperma.
#6 wow did you hit the nail right on the head! Israel will prevail with or without the so called messiah Obama’s help but it would be better if the United States were there for them when the time comes.
You all seem perfectly comfortable comforting yourselves with the assurance of our protection from Hashem. Yes, we all yearn for it, beg for it, and hope for it via Hashem’s endless chesed & rachamim. But stop for one minute and ask yourselves, were not over 6 million Jews murdered just 60 years ago, while the whole world stood idly by & just watched, or actively assisted? HaKodosh Baruch Hu was there as well. Have our eyes not just seen & witnessed numerous acts of worldwide chillul Hashem. Has sinas chinam & machlokes in Kllal Yisroel been addressed? Have Yidden formed Ohev Yisroel organizations and denounced all forms of hatred between frum Jews & between frum & non-frum Jews? Are we still not in Galus for our avonoseinu harabim, rachmana latslan? From where do you you get such confidence? Are each of you getting up every night to say Tikun Chatzos, saying slichos with passion & tears every morning and grieving for the violated honor of Hashem’s name in the world? Are you crying constantly in tefillah for Hashem to overlook His Honor and our avonos and show Kllal Yisroel ongoing chessed & love even though we have not earned it or deserve it?
This is the time of year to wake up & realize that we are not what we should be. That our lives hang by a thread and Hashem is the only one keeping that thread from G-d Forbid snapping. That we have oh so much to be ashamed of, and how over the past year how we have continuously failed Hashem, shamed His name, and yet go on our merry way assuming that all will be fine.
This is not a time for confidence. Hashem has sent us clear messages before the Yamim Noraim. This is a time for teshuva, tefillah, tzedaka, and making amends with our fellow men, all shades of Jews and non-Jews alike. Then hopefully, Hashem will see our sincerity and save us from the awful threat.
AinOhdMilvado (#6)
I think you are puttuing way too much importance on the particular administration that finds itself in power at the point where the Iran nclear issue may be approaching an end-game.
With few exceptions, since WWII there has been a fundemental consistancy in American foreign policy. Though popular arguments run the gamit, and include extreme positions, as during the Vietnam War, for example – just about all administrations are pretty centrist by comparison. This includes this administration. Like hoshkofa fights, l’havdil, people get red faced and furious arguing over the 5% of differnce, and forget the common 95%.
This is in part because we have well trained, experienced and stable senior staff at the State Department, a staff that transcends administration changes. Presidents historically have run into more serious problems if they ignore the State Department in foreign policy deliberations (as, by the way, Bush did in 2002/2003, deferring instead almost entirely to the Defense Department in the build up to the Iraq War).
Bottom line – I believe that whatever Administration would have been and will be in place sometime in the next two years will find itself having to take all measures necessary to prevent an Iranian bomb – and permitting an eager Israel to be the proxy that pulls the trigger would be in American interests.
General question for lots of you:
How are you able to be so sure that you know what Hashem wants? During the Churban Hashem “wanted” us to lose the Beis Hamikdash and Eretz Yisroel – but I have a nagging suspician that right up to the end lots of you would have been oh so certain that the opposite was true.
Are you sure that you are not merely conforming your belief in what is or is not Hashem’s grand design to your own sense of things? Might not those with differing analysis of issue such as this still be your equal in betuchen v’ emunah?
akuperma – I believe that you were just complimented by Flatbush Bubby. You should thank him.
akruma,
“News” stories are the hot air in the WSJ. Opinions are written by right thinking people not the Obamamania media you were speaking of.
So how is your change doing?
#10 Yonason – I totally agree that “senior staff at the State Department… transcends administration changes” – BUT, to use terms like “well trained, experienced and stable” would be highly complimentary to this bunch of rabid anti-semites (since at least WW2 – if not earlier). If you know your Jewish history, both ancient and modern, then you should not expect the US to be “permitting an eager Israel to be the proxy that pulls the trigger… in American interests”. That may sound logical, but logic is almost never a factor in the Middle East. Bottom line is that we must do OUR hishtadlus, both spiritually AND militarily, and then the world will see HaSh-m in his infinite rachamim work nisim v’niflaos for Am Yisrael.
#12 – I’m dissapointed with your comment! I enjoyed #9’s divrei chizuk and I’m sure I’m not alone. We’re still in Chodesh Elul and any kind of chizuk that actually gets us to be proactive should not be shunned. So please make nice ……
Flatbusher,
I hope and pray that you are right, but keep in mind the following.
1) According to the Medrash, 80% of Kllal Yisroel died just before Yetzias Mitzraim and the yeshua came only after Kllal Yisroel “Cried Out” to Hashem in earnest anguish, tefillah and desperation. At the Egel HaZahav, thousands were killed at the instructions of Moshe Rabbeinu and Moshe himself had to spend 40 days & nights begging on our behalf for that Mechilah. Despite that our chazal state that to this day the onesh of the Egel still has a “chalos”. Spanish Jewry were horrifically wiped out and Kllal Yisroel survived.
I do not doubt that Kllal Yisroel will survive as a nation, it has been promised by Hashem. Kllal Yisroel survived even the Holocaust in which again 80% of European Jewry was wiped out before leaving that galus and re-establishing Kllal Yisroel’s presence in Eretz Yisroel for the first time in over 2,000 years.
But we have no assurance as to how much suffering can or will occur during the upcoming year. The Tochacha, the war of Gog u-Magog, chevlai Mashiach , all have no limitations specified. The dangers are very, very real. Those who offer empty reassurances of victory and security abound. The Yom HaDin approaches us rapidly, and we each need to approach Hashem with a broken and contrite heart, not with a cavalier confidence and a sense of being secure. We must realize that our zechusim are few, our avonos are many, “schar mitzva b’hai alma, leka”, and we are like beggars coming to his door and asking for everything we can imagine; the un-doing of our enemies evil plans, protection for all of Kllal Yisroel, good health and parnoso for us all, zivugim for our kids, etc., etc., etc.
Hopefully, with the correct approach to the upcoming days and year, Hashem will see our earnest actions and desires and spare us all from any potential suffering.
What Obama may want is for the EY army to do the dirty work so that the world becomes even more opposed to shleimus ha-aretz.
Alternately he may suspect as I do that they are not up to the job and that therefore their threat is an empty one, so that he can use them as the bad cop while he plays good cop and Iran does what it wants.
Either way Carter YMS gave us the Islamofascist Republic of Iran and Obama will make sure it survives for a few more years if not a couple more decades.
I can’t and won’t knock the power of prayer but take a lesson from that WWII song which say’s “Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition”……what I’m saying it’s just fine to have a strong and ready military ready to do whatever needs to be done while keeping all the prayers going strong.
Obamas greatest hope is to leave office with another 3 or 4 countries nuclearized. That’s all his administration seems to be offering. He definately is not exhibiting any preoccupation with eliminating the third world threat of nuclearization. It is imminent and unless he makes a uturn quickly with actions not speeches we will be infinately more exposed to nuclear attack.