According to the survey published in the erev Shabbos HaMevaser, reportedly more accurate because it was conducted over a two-day period, involving 1,000 respondents, twice the number used in the other polls, Netanyahu remains out in the front. Despite reports that the gap between Likud and Kadima is narrowing, Netanyahu remains ahead by six mandates according to the HaGal HaChadash Poll.
The poll shows that most of the gain by Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu Party has resulted in a loss from Likud and a less significant loss to Shas. The poll shows the right-wing will hold a majority of 12 seats, 66-54.
According to this expanded survey, Likud will receive 30 seats, Kadima 24, Yisrael Beitenu 17, Labor 16, Shas 9, Meretz 6, Yahadut HaTorah 5, Hadash 5, Ra’am-Ta’al 3, Ichud Leumi 3 and Bayit Leumi 2.
In this poll, the extremist Balad party does not earn enough votes to enter the Knesset. On the other side of the political spectrum, Bayit Yehudi, the former Mafdal, may or may not make its way into Knesset. It is important to point out that 15% of the respondents are yet undecided, which could translate to 18 seats – enough to paint an entirely new picture.
To further complicate the pre-election picture, the Magar Mochot poll released on Wednesday showed Likud to be out ahead by only three seats. It showed Likud with 26, Kadima 23 and Yisrael Beitenu with 19.
Responding to the question who will be the next prime minister, 77% believe it will be Netanyahu, 15% Livni and 8% for Barak.
Labor is down to 13, perhaps losing votes to the New Meretz which earns 6 seats, Shas 10, Yahadut HaTorah 6, Bayit Yehudi 3, Ichud Leumi 2, Hadash 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3 and Balad 2.
Then there is the Shvakim Panorama poll that was released on Thursday. It shows Likud with 25, Kadima 21 and both Yisrael Beitenu and Labor with 16, Shas 11, Yahadut HaTorah 7, Meretz 5, Bayit Yehudi 4, Ichud Leumi 4, Hadash 4, Ra’am-Ta’al 3 and Balad 2.
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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One Response
With a statistical margin of error of several percent, one in six undecided, a two percent threshold, and otherwise less than 1% needed for a seat (if you pass the threshold), the POLLIS LARGELY RIDICULOUS (okay,it is certain that Yahadut haTorah and Balad won’t have enough seats to form a government, but that’s all that is certain).