A Maariv report by Eyal Ofer sheds light on the details of the hostage release/ceasefire deal, which will allow Hamas to rehabilitate itself in Gaza and encourages further abductions in the region.

The report states: “Instead of giving Hamas and the Gazans the big prize only at the end of the deal, after all our hostages return home, the Gazans receive their achievement already during Stage A of the deal: all the tent cities of the displaced will be dismantled, a million people—men, women, and children—will head north along the coastal route to Gaza City without any restrictions. At the same time, about 300,000 Gazans will return south to what remains of the destroyed city of Rafah. The only Israeli demand is that the returning cars be inspected. There is no restriction on the movement of those returning on foot.”

“Formally, the words ‘end of hostilities’ do not appear in Part A of the agreement. The formal end is reserved for Stage B—of which it is unknown if and when it will be implemented. Essentially, the IDF will withdraw from all populated areas where our forces are currently located in the northern Gaza Strip, in Jabalia, in the areas of the city of Rafah (except for the Philadelphi Corridor). The Gazan population that returns to these cities will prevent the future possibility of returning to battle in Gaza. The reason we evacuated the Gazans from these areas is precisely so we can fight there.”

“The population in Gaza City and northern Gaza will suddenly grow to almost one and a half million people, including all the senior Hamas officials and military commanders who will blend in with the crowd…This large population will require Israel to increase by five times the amount of humanitarian aid entering Gaza City. Additionally, such a large number of returning displaced persons will certainly require significant infrastructure repair: roads, water systems, electrical systems, communication, and medical services. The rehabilitation of this infrastructure will necessitate additional convoys of aid that will need to be inspected at the Kerem Shalom crossing and move north through the Netzarim Corridor. The Israeli government already decided to expand the Kerem Shalom Crossing for this purpose – so that it can accommodate 1,000 aid trucks per day (up from 500 today).”

“The Netzarim Corridor itself, which until now has been our main asset in the Strip for the IDF because it prevented the return of displaced Gazans northward, will be transformed into a burden: IDF soldiers will find themselves directing aid convoys and essentially being caught between Hamas rule and the unaddressed Hamas squads in central Gaza and the large number of civilians returning to Gaza City.”

“This is a huge achievement for Hamas. Hamas insisted on this throughout the negotiation period and got exactly what it wanted – already at the beginning of Phase A. The issue that has always been secondary for Hamas is the Philadelphi Corridor. Hamas understands that Israel cannot remain in Philadelphi forever – because the implication of surrounding the entire Strip with IDF forces is that we are responsible for everyone inside it.”

“Israel’s presence in Philadelphi does not change anything in the short term for Hamas. They have no intention of starting smuggling immediately. First, they need to secure the funds for civilian reconstruction of the Strip, and only later, when Hamas takes its long-awaited cut from the tens of billions of dollars in aid resources, it will rebuild its military strength. To this end, they may agree to accept an international force or some other façade that could ostensibly stand in public and be the governing body receiving the aid funds (just as crime organizations sometimes register their business in the name of a person without a criminal record).”

“The overall summary of this deal from Hamas’s perspective is excellent. After the displaced individuals return to their homes, they will also gain hundreds or more of their terrorists who will return home from Israeli prisons. Hamas’s control over the Gazan population remains untouched, resources will flow into Gaza at an increased pace, and Hamas retains all Israeli men under the age of 50 as hostages for continued leverage. Essentially, Hamas keeps a significant number of captives, whom it will claim are ‘prisoners of war,’ and will demand the highest prices for them: both the release of murderers and guarantees for the continued flow of funds and materials necessary for rebuilding everything destroyed in the war.

“Such a dream deal will undoubtedly go down in the organization’s history as Hamas’s ‘absolute victory’ over Israel. It will resonate for many years, especially across the Middle East — particularly for the Palestinians in the Shomron, where the difference will become clear: the Houthis, Hezbollah, the Syrians, and even the Iranians failed to defeat Israel. Hamas, on the other hand, achieves all its goals via hostages. When Israel demonstrates to them what the path to victory looks like, it cannot be assumed that this will be the last abduction.”

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)