Countering Iran is expected to dominate U.S. Middle East policy under President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration, according to a report released Tuesday by the Middle East Forum. The report, titled Reasserting American Power in the Middle East, outlines a strategic blueprint for the administration’s early actions, focusing on reversing prior policies and ramping up pressure on Tehran.

The report anticipates that within the first 100 days, the Trump administration will leverage executive orders to reinstate measures such as the travel restrictions widely referred to as the “Muslim ban.” “The administration will prioritize immediate actions to reinforce border security, expand deportation programs, and strengthen oversight mechanisms,” the report states.

A renewed focus on Iran is expected to be a cornerstone of the administration’s approach, with the report predicting a revival of the “maximum pressure” campaign that characterized Trump’s previous term. This strategy could include escalating sanctions, bolstering opposition movements within Iran, and dismantling its regional proxy networks. The ultimate aim, the report suggests, may extend to regime change in Tehran.

“The cornerstone of U.S. Middle East policy must address Iran’s expanding regional influence and its network of proxy forces,” the report asserts. “This strategy will represent an enhanced evolution of the previous maximum pressure campaign.”

The report also highlights the challenges of addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, support for terrorist organizations, and destabilizing activities across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. These issues gained renewed attention after the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led terrorist attacks in southern Israel, which underscored Iran’s backing of the group. The Biden administration’s initial efforts to engage Iran diplomatically were later abandoned in favor of tougher measures following the attacks.

The Trump administration is also predicted to reassess its relationship with Qatar, which hosts the U.S. Central Command at Al Udeid Air Base. While Qatar has played a dual role as both a U.S. ally and a supporter of Islamist groups like Hamas, the report notes that Trump has maintained close ties with the Gulf state. It cites meetings with Qatari leaders and substantial investments by Qatar in private equity firms associated with former Trump officials.

On Gaza, the report outlines a potential path for collaboration with Arab Gulf states to aid in post-war reconstruction. It proposes that Gulf states could fund rebuilding efforts and provide security, thereby reducing the emphasis on the Palestinian issue in U.S.-Israeli-Arab relations.

“This engagement could help pave the way to remove the ‘Palestinian Issue’ from its position of primacy regarding progress toward coexistence between Israel and the Gulf States,” the report suggests.

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