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Israeli Polling Expert On US Elections: “Why Did The Dems Ignore Simple Data?”


Shlomo Filber, one of the CEOs of the Direct Polls polling company, was astonished by the Democrat party’s dismissal of glaring warning signs regarding the Harris campaign.

Filber wrote: “Why did all the US campaign professionals prefer to ignore simple and easy-to-analyze data that served as a huge warning sign and could possibly have changed the outcome for millions of people and trillions of dollars?”

“Let’s try to develop a serious and professional discourse about the campaign in the U.S.

• The Democratic election campaign incurred direct and conservative spending well above a billion dollars.

• In secondary circles – party workers, organizations, institutions, States, financial bodies – we’re talking about many trillions of dollars.

• Political elections are unique and different – you have ‘only one bullet and it must hit the target on the first try.’ For some people, it meant the end of their careers.

“I have been a consumer of political polls for two decades, and in the past five years, I’ve gained expertise in the execution of political polls, especially in-depth analysis. I have never conducted political polls in the U.S. but I am an enthusiast who follows the US elections, the polls, and the campaigns for personal enjoyment and professional enrichment.

“I already noticed and warned in 2020 that the polls in the U.S. were biased in favor of Biden and that the elections will ultimately be decided by fractions of a percent in the swing states and not by a lead of 5%-8%.

“This time, I expressed my opinion – already seven weeks ago – based on the analysis of the polls up to that point that Trump would win in the key states by 3% – which indeed happened.

“It is true that the left and the media like to argue with me by attacking me personally instead of my position.

“But, if I, in a few hours of analysis, twice reached the correct conclusion about the expected results based solely on public polls – then why didn’t all the campaign managers/consultants/strategists/analysts/candidates in the various states, especially the presidential candidate and her staff, reach this conclusion? Or at least accept it as a ‘worse-case scenario’ and plan the campaign accordingly or have a Plan B if the first strategy does not improve the situation. After all, if it comes to fruition (which indeed happened), they lose everything.

“It’s like planning an attack on Iran and not being 100% sure that the coordinates of the bomb are accurate – there’s no point in deploying the entire attack system if the most important bomb misses and falls 200 meters from the target.

“Accurate political research and analysis is not an expensive component of a campaign – just a few percent of the budget. It hones the campaign and saves time and money – funds wasted on foolish and ineffective advertising, and mainly it provides a safety net so you don’t destroy your political career.

“In Israel also, there are currently three to five senior and experienced politicians who follow ‘pipers’ who quite precisely recreate the Democrats’ mistakes for them, hoping that it will work for them here.

“And again, I genuinely ask (I would appreciate intelligent and relevant answers): why did everyone ignore simple and easy-to-analyze data that could have changed the outcome for millions of people and trillions of dollars?”

It should be noted that Kamala Harris made 39 visits to Michigan but lost the state to Trump – just one example illustrating Filber’s points.

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)



4 Responses

  1. i don’t think the answers are so mysterious, mr filber:
    the dems, as they have become more radical, have no policy positions that work. have you seen a prosperous socialist country? therefore they rely instead on offering freebies and pandering to groups on issues that are not relevant to most people: gender, abortion, “racism”, their supposed moral superiority, whatever is the woke position of the day coming out of the ny times. they rely on their mainstream media propaganda machine to paint their opposition as deranged, evil, etc. recently they got individuals elected as attorney generals and used the legal system to discredit the opposition by bringing phony cases. all of this has worked in the past, but people are getting wise to it and are sick of political correctness.

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