According to the latest Israeli intelligence assessments, 51 of the 101 hostages still held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip are believed to be alive. The update, based on extensive intelligence gathered since October 7, 2023, combines public sources with classified data to inform Israel’s response as military operations intensify in Gaza.

Officials fear that the actual number of surviving hostages could be even lower, given the harsh conditions in captivity and ongoing military pressures. In a closed session with the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in September, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shared that intelligence suggested roughly half of the hostages were alive.

Families of hostages have been kept informed of these assessments, though responses vary. While some have accepted the grim conclusions, others await definitive proof. This intelligence is critical for planning operations to minimize unintended casualties. Commanders are working to prevent both accidental harm to hostages from IDF strikes and deliberate actions by Hamas, which has reportedly instructed its members to kill hostages at any sign of rescue attempts.

The recent execution of six Israeli hostages in a tunnel in Khan Yunis underscored Hamas’s threats. Intelligence indicates that 27 hostages have been killed in custody, and at least seven others died due to IDF actions in Gaza.

Israel’s government remains says it is committed to securing the return of all hostages, whether alive or deceased. While negotiations have focused on retrieving living captives, the shrinking number of survivors has intensified calls for an immediate deal. Israeli security officials are pushing for urgent negotiations amid ongoing risks to the remaining hostages.

To this end, CIA Director Bill Burns recently proposed a 28-day ceasefire in exchange for Hamas releasing eight hostages and Israel freeing dozens of Palestinian prisoners. Axios reports that Burns presented this plan during talks last Sunday in Doha with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani and Mossad Director David Barnea. However, the proposal, which does not include Hamas’s demands for an Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, is considered unlikely to be accepted before the U.S. presidential election on November 5.

On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stressed the rescue of the hostages as the IDF’s “most important mission” in Gaza. Speaking from the site where Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was recently killed, Gallant stated that Israel is applying “as much pressure on Hamas as possible” to create the conditions necessary for the hostages’ release.

“The government must do what is necessary to bring about a deal,” Gallant said. “This is our most important mission in Gaza at this time.”

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