Following Tuesday night’s missile barrage from Iran, Israeli officials initially downplayed the effectiveness of the attack, with the IDF claiming that their defenses had largely held. The IDF confirmed that over 180 missiles were launched, and U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan echoed these reports, calling the attack “ineffective.” However, new satellite imagery and social media footage suggest that the strikes may have been more successful than initially admitted.

The footage, analyzed by experts, reveals that several missiles hit the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert, causing secondary explosions. While Israel’s advanced Iron Dome and Arrow defense systems intercepted many of the missiles, at least 32 direct hits were identified at the airbase. Though no significant damage has been reported, some missiles landed dangerously close to hangars that house Israel’s prized F-35 fighter jets.

Experts are warning that while the damage at the military base was minimal, future missile strikes targeting cities like Tel Aviv or critical infrastructure, such as the Bazan Group oil refineries near Haifa, could have far more devastating consequences. “Iran has proven it can hit Israel hard if it so chose,” said Decker Eveleth, an analyst from the research group CNA, who studied the satellite images. “Airbases are hard targets, but a missile strike on a densely packed civilian area would result in a large number of casualties.”

The prospect of a drawn-out “missile ping-pong” between Israel and Iran is also raising alarms among analysts. Israel’s air defense systems, though advanced, are expensive and limited in number, which could make the country increasingly vulnerable to sustained Iranian strikes. This has led some to believe that Israel may seek a more decisive response to prevent further escalation.

Potential targets for retaliatory Israeli strikes include Iranian military facilities, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centers, or even critical energy infrastructure. A direct strike on Iran’s nuclear program, however, remains a red line. Both Iranian and U.S. officials have warned that targeting nuclear facilities could result in a dangerous escalation, pulling in Iranian allies and potentially threatening U.S. forces in the region.

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at Crisis Group, cautioned that the conflict could spiral out of control. “We could see a ballistic missile ping-pong between Israel and Iran that at any moment can escalate and result in casualties in Israel, which would then further escalate the conflict,” he said. “That could pull the United States in and open a much wider conflict in the region.”

Vaez also pointed out that Iran had used some of its most advanced weaponry in the latest attack and warned that Tehran has a sufficient stockpile to sustain similar strikes for months. The only way to prevent a deeper cycle of escalation, he suggested, may be for the U.S. to intervene diplomatically. However, he expressed skepticism about the current administration’s willingness or ability to do so, stating, “The only person with that power is the president of the United States, whose track record doesn’t give us a lot of hope.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)