The likelihood of a phased hostage-ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, based on Israel’s May proposal, is “close to zero,” according to a report by Israel’s Channel 12 on Sunday. Citing unnamed sources within the Israeli security establishment, the report noted “very broad pessimism” among Israeli negotiators, as talks have stalled despite initial optimism.

The U.S., which had previously indicated plans to introduce a new bridging proposal within days, is now seen as unlikely to do so, further dampening hopes of an agreement. Israeli negotiators reportedly grew increasingly frustrated, having believed that an agreement between Israel and the mediators would be conveyed to Hamas. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on maintaining control over the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border—a position not included in Israel’s May proposal—has been blamed for stalling progress. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar reportedly hardened his stance in response.

The situation was worsened when Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated that in addition to opposing an IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, he also objected to a withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor and the release of Palestinian prisoners convicted of murder. According to Channel 12, Smotrich’s remarks essentially “wiped out” the May proposal.

A senior Israeli negotiator informed the families of hostages that even the first phase of the proposed deal—a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release of women, children, and elderly hostages—was unlikely to materialize. “The only way forward is to end the war,” the negotiator reportedly told them.

The stalled negotiations have raised concerns of further escalation, especially in northern Israel, where hostilities with Hezbollah could intensify in the absence of a deal.

The Biden administration, initially optimistic, is reportedly less hopeful now, with U.S. officials expressing “significant pessimism” after Hamas increased its demands, including the release of 100 additional prisoners serving life sentences. U.S. mediators are urging Qatar and Egypt to explore the limits of Hamas’s demands before any new proposals are presented.

The stalled talks come amid growing pressure from hostage families, who have launched daily protests outside the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, urging the government to prioritize a deal. The situation has also sparked protests in Washington, where families of hostages are demanding more action from Israeli officials stationed in the U.S.

Currently, 97 hostages are believed to remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 33 individuals confirmed dead by the IDF.

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