According to a Kadima poll, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will most likely take the party leadership race in the first round, now showing a 20% lead over the number two candidate, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz.

With less than two weeks before the election, most analysts agree that Livni’s success is all but guaranteed.

While Mofaz is viewed as more experienced and more organized, it will be most difficult for him to close in on the current 20% lead that Livni has over him. In the last poll, two weeks earlier, he was only trailing by 13%. The third and fourth place contenders, Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit and Public Security Minister Avi Dichter trail with a combined 11% of the vote.

A Haaretz-Channel 10 News poll conducted by Dialogue Institute shows that if there is a second round run-off vote, Livni will maintain her 20% lead over Mofaz.

The poll, which included 704 registered Kadima voters, shows an amazing 28% are yet “undecided” so in actuality, there could be a swing in a different direction. On the other hand, if a small number of the “undecided” camp votes for Livni, she will take the election in round one on 17 September.

Livni leads Mofaz with almost twice the support among the party’s Arab sector; she leads among male voters by 11% and among female voters, leads 44% to Mofaz’s 14%.

(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)