In a poll conducted by the Dahaf Institute, it is learned that United Torah Judaism Jerusalem mayoral candidate Rav Meir Porush would lose the race to secular candidate and businessman Nir Barakat. The incumbent, Rav Uri Lupoliansky would tie in a race against Barakat.
The weekly chareidi HaShavua newspaper, which reveals the secret poll, is calling the results an “earthquake”.
According to the report, two independent organizations conducted their own polls, both showing Porush losing the race by 20%. These are the findings of the Dahaf poll conducted by Dr. Mina Tzemach as well as the Geocartographia Institute poll conducted by Prof. Avi Degni.
It appears that Barakat did not commission the polls, but Agudas Yisrael did. After seeing the alarming results of the first, the decision was made to hire the second firm to conduct another poll, both more-or-less resulting in the same alarming findings for the chareidi community.
Barakat election officials explain Agudah prefers to keep the results secretive since the party fears if the secular voters realize they have a true chance to bring about a revolution in City Hall, they will come out and actualize their right to vote. Generally, the chareidi voter turnout is extremely high, over 90%, but the secular residents of the capital are less enthusiastic regarding the mayoral election.
According to the Geocartographia poll, Barakat would take 54% of the vote and Porush would only receive 33%. Even more alarming to Agudah was the results showing that even if the secular candidates are not united, and Prof. Mor-Yosef and MK Reuven Rivlin run in the race, three secular candidates against one chareidi, Barakat still takes 39% of the vote against Porush’s 28%.
The poll also shows that even if the incumbent seeks another term, there is nothing to smile about. Mayor Lupoliansky and Barakat both emerge with 44% of the vote. If the secular candidates compete in the race, then Lupoliansky would emerge the victor with a 9% – 11% majority.
The Dahaf Institute results support the Geocartographia poll. If three secular candidates compete against Porush, he would receive about 29% of the vote, with Barakat earning about 40%. Dahaf also reports in a two-way race, Barakat emerges the victor with a 20% lead over Porush.
The Dahaf poll also shows a tie between Barakat and Lupoliansky. If there are three secular candidates running against the incumbent, then he, the incumbent, takes the race with a 10% lead.
When asked if one prefers Porush or Lupoliansky as the chareidi candidate, 47.2% of the secular voters prefer Lupoliansky because Porush “is more chareidi”.
The poll surveyed a cross-section of the adult Jewish community, asking 500 people, with the margin of error being +/_ 3.8%.
Porush responded to the polls, stating they were taken prior to his declaration to run in the race. He added that prior to the last mayoral election, the polls predicted a sure win for Barakat and at the end, we learned this was not the case.
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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6 Responses
Achdus Is what we need especially in these days before Tisha Bav.
even thrugh Porush is 100% right to want to run [becuse that was the deal] i think that if he dose run then not only will he lose, also Lupoliansky will lose and will have barkat. so if he looks at the facts and not run that will be the smartest thing for him to do.
achdus is definitley needed in these times but wat hes doing is necessary.
To s.d.b.:
You make the same mistake that most people make: You assume that what the polls show now is what the polls will show at election time. You’re worng!
President Ronald Reagan, who won by landslide margins, had very poor initial polling results. He did not regard these polls as definitive–only as guideposts to what he needed to do to convince the public that he was the best man for the job.
If Mr. Porush is truly qualified–and I believe he is–all he needs to do is communicate his ability to do the best job for all resident of Jerusalem.
Then he will win!
p.s. To the best of my knowledge, all Barkat has going for him is hatred of Hareidim. That’s not enough to win over a qualified candidate. Gadaymak is a much greater threat to Porush.
If all Cherdim (including those who think that Uri should run again) vote for Porush, then he is a shoo in. The secular votes will be split between 2 candidates.
If Luplianskys chevra do not vote for Porsh then we are in trouble and they are wrong.
a) Since they had a deal.
b) litoivas haklal they should get Porush in.
It is really sad that no one really cares about the Charedi population of Yerushalayim…only about deals. If Agudah REALLY cares, they would want a frum mayor. The polls may not be encouraging but at least Lupliansky has a chance.