Israel’s current population of 9.2 million is expected to grow by 70% to almost 16 million by the year 2050, and nearly a third of Israel’s Jewish population – 3.8 million – will be charedi by then, according to a new projection by Israel’s National Economic Council.
According to the projection, Israel’s population will remain 80% Jewish and 20% Arab, but the Jewish population will begin skewing much more heavily to being charedi, who have the highest birth rates in the country – 6.7 children per woman, on average.
Currently, charedim represent approximately 12.6% of the population, whereas by 2050 it is expected to rise to about 24%. Across all sectors of the population, both Jewish and Arab, charedim are projected to constitute nearly a third of the population.
Additionally, the project assumes that most charedim will remain concentrated in Yerushalayim and surrounding areas, as well as Beit Shemesh. However, the charedi population in the country’s south is expected to grow significantly, as charedim move to new city being planned in the Negev.
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10 Responses
Sounds great and scary at the same time. So many more learning Torah and doing mitzvose is wonderful. At the same time, instead of 87.4% of the population largely subsidizing 12.6%, instead we’ll have 67% of the population supporting 33% of it. So instead of 7-to-1 non-chareidi to chareidi, it’ll be closer to 2-to-1. Maybe gvirim from chut la’aretz will be able to step it up, but clearly the country will not be able to afford paying so many more stipends, so much more welfare support with a (relatively) shrinking working class. Great and scary. Maybe more chareidim will go to the army, and that will help them pay their debt (financially speaking, I don’t mean moral which they can do by sitting and learning).
linear projections are rarely if ever correct. In intervening years changes occur
Sounds like its a grave reporting here. Isnt this pc of bees a celebration? Wasnt Israel founded to be a “Jewish State”? The irony of this news is lost on everyone.
I wonder why this article is before the giyur for babies at birth
Can’t wait! When there won’t be enough other Jews that they can use to shield themselves from Tuma, Charedim will be forced to defend the Jewish people, and get secular education, and do all the derech eretz things that all humans have always had to do in order to survive. And then they won’t be “charedim” anymore, hopefully they will go back to following holocho and basic moral values.
While my graduate work was not in higher mathematics, if I am reading the article correctly, the correct hypothesis to be drawn is that in 30 years from now, TWO-THIRDs of the Israeli population will still be secular or varying degrees of “observant”. Question is whether those two-thirds will become more tolerant and whether the one-third finds ways to increase their participation in the Israeli economy and society consistent with their hashkafah.
24% is nearly a quarter, not nearly a third. A third is 33%…
Based
M you are wrong Hashem is the one who does everything dont worry for him btw ithink its gonna be much more because by than the secular ppl will move away from isreal
3.8 million Chareidim is a lot of mouths to feed. “Mindful” may have the right idea about how it will play out.