Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Whitney Raas and Austin Long published their research addressing the logistical realities surrounding an Israeli assault against Iranian nuclear facilities.

Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities, Whitney Raas and Austin Long question if Israel has the ability to conduct a military attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities similar to its 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osiraq reactor.

They point out that since the 1980s, Israel has significantly upgraded its equipment, but at the same time, the target today is more complicated than Osiraq was in 1981.

Iran has three facilities that are critical for nuclear weapons production: a uranium conversion facility, an enrichment facility, and a heavy-water production plant and associated plutonium production reactor.

This article analyzes possible interactions of Israel’s improved air force, including the addition of F-15i aircraft and U.S.-supplied conventional “bunker-buster” precision-guided munitions, with the Iranian target set and air defense systems.

It concludes that Israel has the capability to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure with at least as much confidence as it had in the 1981 Osiraq strike.

One of the major factors will be the flight route taken by the strike force. There are three options, none of which particularly ideal; 1) A short route that entails flying over Jordan and Iraq, involving the fear of detection by Jordanian radar. In addition, this route demands prior notification to the White House, since Israel would have to request an aerial lane over Iraqi skies. 2) Flying along the periphery of Turkey and Syria, presenting no less difficulty than the first option. 3) The southern long route, via the Mediterranean and Saudi Arabia. Whatever the decision, conditions demand the strike force be escorted by fighter planes en route to the objective and upon its return.

As compared to America carrying out such an operation, an Israeli offensive would be limited since Israel can only allocate some 100 planes, as opposed to the United States and its significantly larger air force. Each plane can make a limited number of sorties and flight path and altitude will play a major role regarding how many bombs can be carried on the mission.

According to American experts, refueling planes will also have to take part along with a command center craft and a highly sophisticated electronics craft for radio jamming and other related responsibilities.

Success relies in a great part on the reliability and detail of intelligence reports, including information pertaining to the thickness and depth on concrete walls.

Navy submarines may also take part in such a mission, with an obvious advantage regarding an ability to reach the target undetected, but also with the realization the submarines are extremely limited regarding payload, the number of missiles that can be launched against the target(s).

(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)