Ten days after Purim, Israel’s coronavirus data is surprisingly encouraging, contrary to predictions by health experts that illegal Purim celebrations could cause an infection spike.

Israel’s infection rate, number of seriously ill patients, and fatalities continue to decline, with the number of seriously ill patients standing at 653 on Wednesday, the lowest number since the end of December. The death toll stands at 5,962.

According to Tomer Lotan, chief of staff of Magen Yisrael, Israel’s national coronavirus response center, Israel’s reproduction number has significantly decreased despite numerous Purim celebrations that violated health regulations, Ynet reported.

“Our R number currently stands at 0.95, exactly 10 days after Purim. We were afraid of a higher number at this point, and when I saw that number today I calmed down a bit,” Lotan said.

Lotan is especially impressed by the decrease in the R number in light of the widespread easing of health regulations in the country at the beginning of the week.

“We would have expected, should any significant outbreak occur, to see some sort of upward trend in this 10-day period. And yet in the last two days in particular we have seen the R number begin to decline.”

According to Lotan, the success of Israel’s vaccination program and the decline in the R number means that the severity of the pandemic in Israel will now be measured by the number of seriously ill patients.

“There is no doubt that the country’s number of seriously ill patients will dictate policy decisions going forward,” Lotan said. “This includes restrictions, closures and so on. But currently, we’re on a downward trend. Our overall direction is good.”

“As for the R number, it serves as a great mirror to the disease. It gives us all the information we need to know – the effects of the mutations, the impact of the vaccines and public behavior. Overall it provides us with a clear picture of if the pathogen is in an upward or downward trend.”

Although Israel’s coronavirus data is encouraging as a whole, there is currently an infection spike in the Arab sector, where the vaccination rate is the lowest in the country.

“It’s true that Arab society is perhaps the biggest challenge regarding vaccines, and it is also divided within itself,” Lotan said. “We have east Jerusalem, the Bedouin society. These are the main ‘pockets’ of difficulty regarding the vaccines.”

“We have a major control center within Magen Israel [the national pandemic response center] that does serious work with the authorities and the Arab public. In the last two or three weeks, there has been a significant increase in the rate of immunization in Arab society. This is the result of targeted activities done in collaboration with local Arab leadership.”

Despite all the good news, Lotan, like other health experts, is concerned about the government’s decision to fully reopen Ben-Gurion Airport due to the fear of more variants entering the country.

“Ben-Gurion Airport is undoubtedly our Achilles heel when it comes to this disease,” Lotan said. “Although the protective layers at Ben-Gurion Airport have improved significantly, alongside the isolation measures for returnees, there is no doubt that the airport is our weak spot.”

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)