The first serological tests conducted in Israel show that 200,000 Israelis were infected with the coronavirus – 2.5% of the population – over ten times the number of confirmed cases, Yisrael Hayom reported on Tuesday.
The results are far higher than the 1% of the population estimated to have been infected by the Health Ministry and the National Security Council but very far from herd immunity, which requires at least half of the population to have been infected with the virus.
The serological tests, conducted to detect the presence of antibodies against Covid-19, were carried out under the direction of a health ministry team headed by Prof. Daniel Cohen, head of Tel Aviv University’s School of Public Health, with the assistance of Magen David Adom.
The tests were conducted on 1,700 Israelis, a representative sample of the population in regard to age, gender and locale.
Cohen told Haaretz that the infection rate among women was 1.2% compared with 2.6% for men – which would mean that men comprised almost 70% of the coronavirus cases in Israel. According to the data from confirmed cases, only 55% of virus cases were men.
The serological testing also showed that those aged 40-59 had the highest infection rate – 3.6% – while those under 19 had the lowest rate at 0.8%. There were also varying infection rates in different geographical areas, with over 3% of people tested in Jerusalem having antibodies but only 1% in Haifa.
“At least 50% of the population needs to develop antibodies for herd immunity and currently that exists for only 2.5 percent,” Cohen said. That means we’re far from herd immunity and the health system must be prepared regarding epidemic management and not be surprised by widespread outbreaks as we’re currently seeing [at the Hebrew Gymnasium high school in Jerusalem].
A larger set of tests of 150,000 to 200,000 tests is scheduled to take place soon in the general population and a separate set of tests will be conducted in Bnei Brak, which suffered a widespread outbreak of the virus and was placed under lockdown in April.
(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)
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2 Responses
Consistent with findings elsewhere that for 90% of those infected with Covid19, the symptoms are nonexistent or so mild that they don’t see a need to see a doctor or get tested. An epidemic that has a serious impact on only a small group does not, and did not, warrant the massive lockdowns.
This is amazing because for months and months and months I’ve heard that you take the confirmed cases and multiply that by 10-20x for the true number of those who were infected. 10x for places with good testing, 20x for those that don’t really. And this number has been right in almost every study. I’m amazed that they knew this equation way back in at least March or earlier.