Is Israel heading to a third round of elections? As the days pass since the September 17, 2019 election for 22nd Knesset, it appears increasingly likely that once again, Israelis will head to the polls, this time to elect the 23rd Knesset. The current situation, in which an interim government runs the nation, leaves much work unattended and many items which are critical to the nation’s economy, security, education and other areas are being ignored and constantly pushed off in the hope of a new government being formed.

With the return of the presidential mandate by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, that mandate is going to be given to the chairman of the largest party, the Blue & White party. Then MK Benny Gantz will have 28 days to attempt to assemble his coalition government, a mission that is close to impossible under current conditions most predict.

Gantz is to receive the mandate on Wednesday evening, October 23, 2019, and the clock will begin counting down 28 days from that point. Gantz has already signaled he will first turn to Likud in the hope of forming a broad-based national unity government, but the chances of such a reality are almost non-existent, as Blue & White rejected Likud overtures to enter into a government headed by Netanyahu.

If Gantz fails, and holds on to the mandate until the end, we will be at the 19th or 20th of November. Then there is the 21-day period during which any Member of Knesset may approach President Reuven Rivlin and show the names of 61 MKs and thereby assume the leadership of the nation and move ahead with a new government. During this critical period, the threat of a third round of elections will be the greatest, and perhaps; one of the faction leaders will succeed in forming a coalition. There will be enormous pressure on the MKs to avoid a costly third round of elections, and perhaps this will lead to the impossible occurring. This period will end on the 7th or 8th of December, and if no coalition government has been formed by then, the Knesset will once again dissolve and elections will take place 90 days later for the 23rd Knesset.

This brings us to March 6, 2020, one day more or less. The 6th of March is a Thursday, and therefore, the election would be held on the following Tuesday, March 10, 2020. Since this is Purim, the election for 23rd Knesset, if it occurs, would likely be on Tuesday, March 17, 2020, 21 Adar 5770, exactly six months following the election for 22nd Knesset on September 17, 2019.

Many occurrences may impact the above schedule, not the least being a criminal indictment against Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. A decision is expected by Attorney General Dr. Avichai Mandelblit and/or State Prosecutor Shai Nitzan sometime in December 2019 regarding indictments in the cases currently involving PM Netanyahu.

If a decision is announced during the 21-day period not to indict him for bribery, this would make it easier for Gantz to team with Likud should he wish to. If an indictment is handed down, Netanyahu would be expected to declare himself “incapacitated” and with a new party leader, this too would change the dynamics of forming a coalition.

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)