For Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the investigation against Prime Minister Ehud Barak is a double-edged sword. Barak is not losing sleep over Olmert’s predicament, but he also realizes if the nation goes to the polls, he is unlikely to emerge with a senior cabinet post, not to mention his inability to realize his aspirations to once again serve as the nation’s leader.

Barak enjoys a senior cabinet post, but he is not a MK and as such, he cannot build his own coalition. That leaves him the option of supporting Likud MK Silvan Shalom’s motion to dissolve the current Knesset, or wait for Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to replace Olmert and remain in his current post.

If the nation goes to early elections, polls indicate that opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu will emerge the victor and serve as the next prime minister.

As for Shas, while the chareidi Sephardi party would prefer not to remain in a coalition headed by a woman, especially a liberal one like FM Livni, Shas may decide to do just that if Livni commits to honoring the coalition agreement and maintain the status quo on a number of matters, with religious matters leading the list. Shas does not wish to see a return of Netanyahu, who during his last tenure as prime minister delivered a hard blow to the chareidi community and yeshivos.

(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)