After three election polls show the same results, Yisrael Hayom, the newspaper that is aligned with Likud and its leader, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, releases yet another poll showing that Mr. Netanyahu will not be able to form a coalition government without Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu party. In fact, Lieberman’s party grows and it will not be possible to exclude him from a coalition.
The poll was conducted by Magar Mochot run by Prof. Yisrael Katz, after the Knesset voted to dissolve itself and declare new elections.
The right-wing bloc [without Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu party] leads with 59 seats while the left-wing has only 53 seats. Lieberman’s party increases from five to eight seats.
The poll shows Likud with 36 seats, while rival Blue & White has only 34. The big change, albeit an unwanted one for PM Netanyahu, is the third largest party will be Yisrael Beitenu with eight seats. Then comes Shas and Yahadut Hatorah with seven year, Ta’al – Hadash, the New Right, Balad – Ta’al, Labor, and Meretz. The United Right-Wing Parties (URWP) are down to four seats as opposed to five in the current Knesset.
Likud 36
Blue & White 34
Yisrael Beitenu 8
Shas 7
Yahadut Hatorah 7
Ta’al & Hadash 6
New Right 6
Balad & Ra’am 5
Labor 4
URWP 4
Meretz 4
Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party does not pass the minimum threshold to enter Knesset.
Who is most suited to serve as prime minister?
39% Binyamin Netanyahu
27% Benny Gantz
5% Avigdor Lieberman
3% Yair Lapid
3% Gabi Ashkenazi
3% Naftali Bennet
2% Avi Gabbai
18% different responses
Who is to blame for early elections?
47% Lieberman
43% Netanyahu
11% of respondents indicated they plant to vote for a different party than they did in the last Knesset election in April 2019.
Among the respondents, 64% stated they will certainly vote, as they feel this election is extremely important.
The poll included 525 respondents, eligible voters, with the margin of error being +/- 4.3%.
Last week, after the Knesset voted to dissolve itself on Wednesday, three polls were released: KAN11, News13 and Makor Rishon, all showing bad news for Binyamin Netanyahu as Lieberman’s party increases to 8-9 seats. Hence, without Lieberman, there will be no coalition and it appears in the next Knesset, he will yield more power than he does today.
(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)
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3 Responses
Changes will be caused by different parties passing or failing to pass the minimum threshold, so until this is known on morning of Ellul/September 18th, no way of knowing the real differences from last election.
I know it is theoretical but I wonder what would happen if all of those chareidim who did not vote would do so. Could it possibly tip the scales ever so slightly so as to push Leiberman out of power? I just think it would make some sense to hold your nose and go to the polls than to yell and scream at protests when the government start throwing your buddies in jail. Of course, it is not as much fun and it may involve making some shalom but just a thought.
Given the margin for polls (even the best are plus or minus a few percent), and the Israeli election system in which many parties straddle the threashold, meaning a slight shift and they go from 4 seats to zero, or back again, THE POLLS HAVE VERY LITTLE PREDICTIVE VALUE. About all you can be certain of is that the next prime minister will be neither a Hareidi, a Socialist or a Palestinian..