Recent polls have signaled that if former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz enters the political arena, he will change the face of the Knesset in the upcoming election. Perhaps the party that will be hit the hardest is Yesh Atid, for the latest Walla News poll shows Gantz’s party would receive 19 seats while Yesh Atid, which has been the second largest party behind Likud to date, would only receive 10 seats, becoming the fifth largest party.

The poll questions respondents which party they would vote for if Knesset elections were held today.
• Likud 30
• Benny Gantz 18
• Arab List 13
• Bayit Yehudi 12
• Yesh Atid 10
• Machane Tzioni 9
• Yahadut Hatorah 8
• Meretz 6
• Kulanu 5
• Yisrael Beitenu 4
• Shas 4

Some interesting facts regarding the poll. Yahadut Hatorah at present, appears to be breaking and that means Degel Hatorah and Agudas Yisrael will run independently, and this would most likely result in losing at least one seat, if not two.

With Shas diminishing and Yahadut Hatorah splitting, the chareidim are likely to have less representation in the next Knesset as today, Shas is seven and Yahadut Hatorah six. Based on current realities, they could fall below ten.

The Arab list, while usually not given much attention, would already comprise over 10% of the Knesset. The Arab lawmakers are quietly building their strength as the other parties seem to ignore them, but if they continue on the current trend, we will see new realities in a short number of years.

The results of the poll also show PM Netanyahu can easily form his new coalition with Gantz, Kulanu, Shas, and Yahadut Hatorah, if the chareidim remain united. However, this would be greatly be dependent on the draft law, as Gantz, a former IDF Chief, is not likely to be too quick to accept an entirely ‘chareidi-friendly’ version of the bill. However, the bill, as things appear today, may be decided by the High Court of Justice so it will not be an issue.

Clearly, Mr. Netanyahu will be able to lock out the parties that have imbittered his coalition life. Should he reach agreement with Gantz, which is likely, Mr. Netanyahu will not be held hostage by any of the parties, including the chareidim, since his options would be many.

What is also clear, is that achdus among the chareidi parties in the current administration is critical if there is any hope of passing a new draft law before it comes before the Supreme Court.

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)