Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman has rattled the political system with his resignation, but perhaps none more than the chareidi parties. The chareidi parties in recent weeks have been working in earnest behind the scene to amend the draft law towards finding a formula that is accepted to the respective Moetzas Gedolei Torah as well as the other coalition parties. They are keenly aware that if the coalition fails to pass a new draft law by the deadline set forth by the Supreme Court, December 2, 2018, the court will rule on the matter, and most likely, that ruling will be far less favorable for Bnei Torah than any draft law legislated in Knesset. No less worrisome is the fact that if a new law is not in place, and the deadline is reached, all Bnei Yeshivos would be required to serve in the IDF as they would no longer have any legal status permitting them to remain in yeshivos and kollel.

With the new reality following Lieberman’s resignation it has become abundantly clear to the leaders of Shas, Degel Hatorah and Agudas Yisrael that the chances of legislating a new draft law in Knesset prior to early Knesset elections are slim at best. Clearly, if the Bayit Yehudi party makes good on its threat that is party chairman Minister Naftali Bennet does not receive the defense portfolio they will leave the coalition, then PM Netanyahu will announce early elections, for he has signaled in the past he would never give this portfolio to Bennet.

There is no doubt that there will is increasing anger directed at Agudas Yisrael, particularly Deputy Minister Yaakov Litzman, for it has been Litzman who has influenced the Admorim Shlita to reject efforts to legislating a new draft law, wasting precious time with threats to leave the coalition instead of working with Shas and Degel Hatorah, who were tenacious in efforts to reach an acceptable formula. Later on, Litzman and Agudas Yisrael climbed down from their ladder and agreed to work towards formulating a new law, but only after it was clear that PM Netanyahu was heading to early elections rather than being blackmailed by the chareidim over the draft law.

Shas officials accuse Lieberman of failing to keep his word. One MK stated, “Lieberman did not stand by the word, we celebrated victory and, in the morning,, we were dealt a blow, and we were certain that Lieberman would pass the draft law in the coming month.”

“However, Shas is not afraid of early elections. The assessment is that Aryeh Deri will agree to the early elections, we are in the best position for an election campaign, strengthening throughout the country. Sure, after the victory in Jerusalem we are more prepared, more so than other factions.”

The bottom line is that the chareidim have a serious problem to face, and it will depend on just how cooperative Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu chooses to be, to assist in negotiating with coalition partners to pass a draft law, or alternatively, to circumvent the complicated process by setting a date for early elections and letting the High Court address the draft law, removing the responsibility from the coalition’s shoulders. One must remember that the prime minister is not likely to permit becoming too entangled in efforts to pass a chareidi version of the draft law, for doing so will most likely work against Likud at the polls in upcoming Knesset elections.

As the picture appears today, based on the last months of efforts surrounding the draft law and the recent municipal elections, Degel Hatorah and Shas are likely to reach some type of working agreement, with Degel chairman MK Moshe Gafne preferring to leave Agudas Yisrael and Litzman, finding a new comfort zone partnering with Shas; as from the Shas and Degel perspectives, Agudas Yisrael has been a significant source of damage on both the local and national arenas. This was evident in particular in the mayoral races in Tzefas, Beit Shemesh and Yerushalayim. In all three of those major races, Shas and Degel found common ground, while Agudas Yisrael remained the outsider.

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)