A Smith Poll from the end of last week shows candidates Ofir Berkowitz and Moshe Leon are in first and second place respectively in the Jerusalem mayoral race among the dati leumi and non-religious voters.

In the event of a runoff election between the two, Leon emerges the winner. The poll also shows that chareidi support for Leon will bring him a victory in the first round of voting.

Once again, the chareidi voters can make the difference, and at present, both Shas and Degel Hatorah have yet to officially announce which candidate they will support. Shas chairman Minister Aryeh Deri has indicated he will back Leon, but he has yet to make an official announcement. Agudas Yisrael has endorsed Yossi Deutsch. Degel Hatorah seems to be waiting to determine which candidate will offer it the best deal in return for its backing.

The poll places Berkowitz in the lead with 22% of the vote, followed by Leon with 19%, Ze’ev Elkin with 15%, Yossi Chavilov and Rachel Azariya with 7% each and Yossi Deutsch with 1%. Remember, this is a poll of non-chareidi voters only. 25% of respondents are still undecided.

The poll was conducted after Histadrut National Labor Federation Jerusalem Director Danny Bonfil announced his endorsement of Moshe Leon, which give Leon a major boost in his bid to become the city’s next mayor.

When asked how respondents would vote among three candidates; Berkowitz, Leon and Elkin, Berkowitz wins with 26%, followed by Leon with 22% and Elkin with 17%. In this scenario, 33% of respondents are undecided.

Perhaps the interesting data is if there is a runoff race between Leon and Elkin, in which Leon wins with 28% against Elkin’s 23%. In this event, 36% of respondents are undecided.

If both Shas and Degel announce their support for Leon, he will emerge the victor in the first round of voting. Elkin is losing religious and secular votes in the race due to the entry of Berkowitz. Without chareidi backing, Elkin’s chances of emerging the winner are slim at best.

The poll involved 400 respondents, residents of Jerusalem, registered voters 17 and older. Respondents identify with the dati leumi and secular communities.

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)