Former Israeli Ambassador to Egypt Eli Shaked on Tuesday afternoon, spoke with Kol Chai Radio’s afternoon news program, addressing the instability and violence taking place in Cairo over recent days.

The former ambassador explained that events taking place today are indeed significant, detailing that Egypt is not just “another Arab neighbor or another Arab nation”, but the dominating nation regarding Israel’s Arab neighbors. He explained that during the administration of deposed President Hosni Mubarak, Cairo pulled considerable regional weight and influenced policy vis-à-vis Arab states and Israel.

Since Mubarak has been ousted, Shaked explains it is imperative that we carefully monitor events, which are unfortunately not unfolding in Israel’s favor. He believes that it is increasingly clear that the influence of the Islamic Brotherhood continues to increase and the radical organization will be a major component of the ruling coalition following presidential elections. Shaked feels the Brotherhood is simply the wealthiest party vying for seats as well as the most popular, growing rapidly as it continues picking up additional support from disenchanted residents. He compares the situation to events in Tunisia and Islamic fundamentalism there, as well as the growing presence of the Brotherhood in Jordan as well.

The Arab Spring, the current PA (Palestinian Authority) bid for UN acceptance he adds is marvelous for the Islamic fundamentalists and it serves as a springboard for their radical views and ultimately, they are gaining from the results of that failed effort.

Another example of radical influence he says is Hizbullah in Lebanon, and there too one can see the radical organization is increasing its powerbase.

Now, almost ten months since Mubarak was ousted, Shaked feels that the military lost the battle, waging a poor war of recession, perhaps erring from a tactical standpoint against the Islamic Brotherhood, but whatever the case, he is all but certain that the fundamentalists will be an integral portion of Egypt’s ruling coalition and the treaty that existed between Cairo and Jerusalem in the past will not be the same treaty in the future, as the relationship has already deteriorated since the ousting of Mubarak.

Shaked is not optimistic regarding a long-term serious agreement, but quickly adds that he does not believe war is imminent, simply explaining the new relationship will not be on the level know in past years during the Mubarak era. For one thing he explains, the radicals have their own pressing problems and agenda, including Iran and the Shiite threat which far outweighs concerns with Israel.

(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)