In the 17 months between now and Election Day 2012, innumerable theories, some esoteric, will be advanced about how President Obama can get reelected. Math provides a starker answer: Win Florida.
Obama in 2008 carried nine states that former President George W. Bush won four years previously. If Obama loses eight of those battlegrounds and holds Florida — and the other states remain unchanged — he will secure another four years in the Oval Office.
To say the presidential campaign is already underway in Florida might be an exaggeration — but not by much. Last week, Obama paid his third visit of the year to the Sunshine State. And no sooner had he left than putative Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney arrived.
Florida’s unemployment rate is 10.6 percent. This figure, significantly above the national average, forms the keystone of the GOP’s argument to eject Obama.
“President Obama has had over two years [in office] and the economy is continuing to shrink,” said Trey Stapleton, the Florida Republican Party’s communications director. “We’ve just had a lot of rhetoric on this issue.”
Stapleton’s Democratic counterpart, Eric Jotkoff, makes the case for the defense: “I think Floridians recognize that President Obama has done everything in his power to jump-start the economy,” he said. “His policies have stabilized our economy and jobs are being created.”
It seems premature to pen Obama’s political obituary in Florida based on job numbers alone. A Quinnipiac University poll last month indicated that 51 percent of Floridians approved of Obama’s job performance, while 43 percent disapproved.
But that finding likely reflected the “Osama bin Laden bounce” that benefited Obama in the wake of the killing of the al Qaeda leader. The same organization the month before had recorded an almost mirror-image result: 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval.
Obama could, receive aid from an unexpected quarter. The victory of Republican Rick Scott in last year’s gubernatorial election in Florida was seen at the time as a Tea Party triumph. Today, with an approval rating measured by one recent poll at 29 percent, Scott could well be the most unpopular governor in the nation.
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