I’m going to preface this article by saying, this is not whom I want should win or who I think is a better candidate, it’s who I think will win based on polls etc. This article is also who will win the presidency (270 electoral votes) NOT the popular vote as that doesn’t make much of a difference!
Important to keep in mind, that the electoral map favors the democrats thus it’s generally always easier for a democrat to win the presidency. A Republican candidate would have to win most of the swing states to reach the 270 electoral votes needed while a Democrat only needs a few to get there.
Based on #polls: If you go strictly according to what the polls are saying (practically EVERY poll), Hillary Clinton will most definitely be the next President. She’s even with him in many of the swing states and is leading in some others, and as we stated before, she just has to win a few to have enough electoral votes. This is why almost every model and analyst that works based on polls gives her an extremely high chance of winning (according to Nate silver a 70%, Reuters 90% etc). While you can argue that the polls are all biased, it’s not a strong point.
#Predictions: It’s interesting to note that there are two professors that have correctly predicted many past elections that say Trump will end up with a victory and the presidency. It’s a lengthy discussion explaining what they base their prediction on but in short, it’s not based on polls just on many other factors. (Would be fascinating if they predicted correctly while all polls say otherwise)
Getting out the #vote: Now, in every election there is one VERY important factor which can determine the outcome of the race, and that’s what we will call voter turnout. If republicans can get more of their people out to vote, they can end up winning that state and the same by the democrats. Which is why every campaign works months if not more on building up a solid and organized ground game ahead of election day, to get out the vote. That includes people knocking on doors, phone calls and more. Generally, in the past, democrats have always had a way better ground game then the republicans (most recent example was in 2012 Obama vs Romney) which helps them win many swing states and the election. We don’t know what’ll be in this election but this can be expected.
#Enthusiasm: On the other hand, there is one major thing going for Trump that Obama had and Hillary is lacking greatly. This is the enthusiasm of his supporters. If you look at Trump’s rallies for an example he is way ahead of Hillary’s small rallies. Day in day out he had rallies with thousands upon thousands of people while she had nothing in comparison. Same is if you look at the amount of followers he has on all social media platforms, he’s ahead. This is all because of the enthusiasm his supporters have. She has way less of that, as very few of her supporters’ care that much for her as much as they would just rather her then Trump. Even more so in the past two weeks with the FBI announcement and all the WikiLeaks dumps, which drained the enthusiasm even more. This can get many more of Trump’s supporter’s out to vote and Hillary’s to stay home!
To summarize, it’s way more probable and expected for Hillary to win tonight, but it shouldn’t be a total shock if Trump pulls of an upsetting victory. Would be surprising but it can happen.
Moshe Fried – New York
NOTE: The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of YWN
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One Response
What can happen tonight when it’s 100% that the voting machines are rigged as well as Mainstream Media, as WikiLeaks has just revealed?
LEAKED DOCUMENTS REVEAL EXPANSIVE SOROS FUNDING TO MANIPULATE THE 2016 FEDERAL ELECTION.
Wikileaks has just leaked documents from Billionaire George Soros צרות, the infamous self-hating Jewish Nazi collaborator, and his foundation that show funding in effort to manipulate the 2016 Election results.
The leaked documents also reveal deliberate and successful efforts to manipulate media coverage of election issues in mainstream media outlets like the The New York Times.