Hillary Clinton’s confidence could cost her the US presidency, according to a leading American political scientist who claims that Donald Trump is on course to win the US election in 12 days.
The warning comes amid concerns from the Clinton campaign team that voter turnout will yet prove critical, despite many polls suggesting that the Democratic candidate is ahead of her Republican rival.
The latest results from the poll considered to have most accurately predicted the results of the last three elections, by IBD/TIPP, suggest that Ms Clinton may have a lead of just 0.6 per cent over Mr Trump, with 41.8 per cent backing the former US Secretary of State compared with 41.2 per cent for Mr Trump.
In Florida, a key state for signalling the winning candidate in previous elections, Mr Trump may be ahead of Clinton, with 45 per cent compared with 43 per cent for his opponent, according to a Bloomberg Politics poll released yesterday.
Professor Helmut Norpoth, from the Department of Political Science at Stony Brook University in New York, has correctly predicted the past five US presidents.
Using a statistical model based on previous election results, he is predicting that Mr Trump will triumph next month. Professor Norpoth told i: “My forecast says that he’s going to win 52.5 per cent of the two-party vote, that would give Hillary 47.5 per cent. I attach something like 87 per cent certainty that he’s going to win.”
Professor Norpoth admits that his prediction is not shared by many pollsters, with most showing Ms Clinton just ahead of Mr Trump – one by as many as 12 points.
But he added: “My forecast is not poll-driven – I don’t live by the polls so I don’t die by the polls.”
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5 Responses
So what do you say to that, all you snarky Clintonistas??
I don’t support Trump by the way, I’m just anti the criminal fraudster nasty witch super phony H. Rodham Clinton.
he was wrong on gore. so he wasnt correct the past 5. also his theory is suspect. he bases it on how a candidate performed in the primaries. since bush clinton the one who had a better primary was also an incumbent. even bush clinton clinton may have had a better primary because was so low regarded at that point it was almost like he wasnt an incumbent. so a case can be made that the reason for all those victories had nothing to do with the primaries. additionally he doesnt take into account anything that happened since the start of the general campaign. and to me especially this time that just doesnt make any sense. this time the general is a whole different situation than the primaries especially on the trump side
let us hope Ivanka gets what she davened for on rosh hashana.
From Professor Helmut Norpoth’s predictions to השם’s ears.
BTW:- Unlike Hillary, Professor Helmut Norpoth is not a liar.
Ivanka probably fears her father, who has inappropriately commented on her physical appearance and stated that he would date her if she were not his daughter.