Wisconsin didn’t exactly embrace Donald Trump through the presidential primaries — one influential conservative radio host publicly belittled him as a “buffoon” and “clown.”
Now, Trump hopes that his running mate, Mike Pence, will prove to be a secret weapon when he is dispatched to this important swing state Wednesday.
Pence was set to campaign in the heart of conservative Wisconsin, a three-county region considered the epicenter of the state’s never-Trump movement, which Trump lost to rival Ted Cruz by a whopping 40 points.
The rally in Waukesha, a suburb of Milwaukee, is Pence’s first solo campaign stop since he joined the ticket nearly two weeks ago. Joining him is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a former rival and recent Trump convert, who campaigned for Cruz ahead of the April primary.
As governor of nearby Indiana, the hope is that Pence will appeal to Wisconsin in a way Trump hasn’t, and fill the void left by Cruz’s exit. Pence initially backed Cruz’s candidacy and he’s got the strong backing from Walker, potentially earning him the support of those Republicans wary of Trump.
About 40 percent of the state’s Republican primary voters live in the three counties surrounding Democrat-heavy Milwaukee. Running up the votes in those suburbs is imperative for Trump if he wants to become the first Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Trump lost the so-called WOW counties — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington — by three times the margin of his statewide loss.
By contrast, in Wisconsin’s 2012 presidential primary Mitt Romney won the three counties by 30 points over former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
“It’s very telling that the first place they’re sending Pence is a region they should already have locked up 100-ish days out,” said Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki. “Trump’s temperament and divisive rhetoric is turning off, in particular, suburban women, making even historically Republican regions problematic for them.”
As poorly as Trump did in April, recent opinion polls show he’s headed in the right direction in southeastern Wisconsin.
Marquette University Law School polls conducted in June and July show that Trump’s approval rating among Republicans in the WOW counties is 59 percent — on par with Republicans statewide. The same polls show that just 73 percent of Wisconsin Republicans say they intend to vote for Trump — far less than the levels typical in most election years, said pollster Charles Franklin.
“Winning their votes is the critical element of the campaign, and makes Pence’s visit to Waukesha so important,” Franklin said.
There are other signs that southeast Wisconsin isn’t quite the bastion of anti-Trump fervor that it was before the primary. Belling, among the state’s most influential talk show hosts, had derided Trump candidacy in the days leading up to the primary. But he did an about face two weeks ago saying Trump is a better choice than Clinton, whom he branded as a liar without conscience.
Walker’s recent full-throated endorsement of Trump, and his appearance at Wednesday’s rally with Pence, could also help to sway reticent Republicans.
But House Speaker Paul Ryan, who lives about 60 miles from Waukesha in Janesville, is skipping the rally to raise money for other House Republicans out of state. Ryan is backing Trump but with some trepidation. He’s publicly condemned some of Trump’s comments, while defending his endorsement saying he believes the Republican agenda has a better shot with him as president than Clinton.
(AP)