In addition to the reality that Likud has 30 seats, perhaps the two most important factors from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s perspective is that Bayit Yehudi is much smaller than anticipated and that a coalition can be formed with Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party.
The easiest coalition scenario for PM Netanyahu is as follows;
Likud (30)
Kulanu (10)
Bayit Yehudi (8)
Shas (7)
Yahadut Hatorah (6)
Yisrael Beitenu (6)
This would give the prime minister a comfortable coalition of 67 seats, and while it is not the preferable scenario, the coalition can exist without Yisrael Beitenu. Hence, this may be the first time since 1996 that the prime minister can tell senior party officials that the top cabinet portfolios will remain in Likud for Mr. Netanyahu will not have to hand over the Foreign Ministry to Lieberman for a second term if he does not wish to do so.
It is assumed that Moshe Ya’alon will continue as defense minister. It is also assumed that Moshe Kahlon is likely to be the next finance minister. Kahlon announced to the media on Wednesday morning 27 Adar that the prime minister has already contacted him, adding “He told me that his intentions are serious”. The prime minister has also already contacted Bayit Yehudi and the chareidi parties.
This leaves the question of who will receive the foreign minister portfolio.
If the prime minister can bring Bayit Yehudi into the coalition without this senior cabinet post, it is all but certain the portfolio will remain in house, given to a senior Likud official. The leading candidates for the post are Gilad Erdan and Silvan Shalom.
(The number of seats may fluctuate. The Central Election Committee states the final numbers will be released Thursday morning, 28 Adar).
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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5 Responses
Leiberman was a particularly awful and ineffective foreign minister.
The fact that he chose to concentrate on internal affairs and sepnd his time making it tough for the chareidim shows he’s incapable of keeping to his brief.
Likud must acknowledge that people out of panic moved from Bayit Yehudi to Likud, but only after he promised to include Bayit Yehudi.
Lieberman should get justice ministry so he can save his corrupt colleagues.
How does a man convicted of corruption as a minister and sat in prison demand to be reappointed to the same ministry?
Lieberman has been an albatross around Bibi’s neck since he was indocted as chief od staff in 1997. It is about time he was out of the government. Too bad he is still an MK.
1. If the right wing can find a solution on conscription that is acceptable to the hareidim and doesn’t alienate anyone else (my suggestion is a volunteer army with liberal pay and benefits), then a Nationalist-Hareidi coalition has a lock on the country.
2. If small parties are too greedy, Netanyahu would consider Labor. If Lieberman, Bayit Yehudi and the hareidim are demand more than Labor is, it would be tempting for Netanyahu to go with Labor (which for the most part are now non-socialists, such as Livni and Herzog).