A Midgam election poll commissioned by Galei Tzahal (Army Radio) shows that Shas, Yahadut Hatorah and Yachad will receive a total of 17 seats.
The poll’s results were released on Tuesday morning, 12 Adar, showing Shas continues its decline. Another poll shows that Shas has lost almost half of its support from the chareidi community, dropping from 24% to 13%.
Labor/The Movement: 24
Likud: 22
Bayit Yehudi: 12
Yesh Atid: 12
Arab bloc: 12
Kulanu: 8
Yisrael Beitenu: 7
Yahadut Hatorah: 7
Shas: 6
Meretz: 6
Yachad: 4
The poll was conducted on 10 and 11 Adar among 600 respondents 18 or over. The margin of error is +/- 4%.
It should be pointed out that all of the polls signal about 10% or more of the chareidi vote remains undecided or “will not vote” at this time [This include those planning to place a blank piece of paper in the ballot]. Hence, the outcome for the frum parties may change depending numerous factors. One of these factors is what HaGaon HaRav Shmuel Auerbach Shlita will say; if he instructs the estimated 15,000 Yerushalmi faction supporters what party to vote for or to boycott the elections. It also appears that the 3,000 chareidi dati leumi votes affiliated with the ‘Har HaMor’ tzibur will move from Bayit Yehudi to Yachad.
Election Day is Tuesday, 26 Adar.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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2 Responses
and absolutely no change from other polls on the bottom line:
Likud can form a government with only right and hareidi parties
Labor can only form a government if it includes left, Arabs and hareidim
There is no real possibility of a Left+Arabs+Charedim coalition. Even if Labor were to make the unprecedented (and extremely unlikely) move of asking the Arabs to join it in a coalition it would still need at least one (and possibly two) centrist party/ies to join it. That is extraordinarily unlikely to happen.
Likud may have the option of a right wing+centrist parties coalition as well, although Bibi would probably prefer a coalition with UTJ and Shas over a coalition with Lapid.
And then there is the possibility of a unity government.