7 Responses

1. If Shas (Deri) and/or Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman) fall below the threshold (of four seats, the minimum size to be in the Kenesset), that could switch the balance of power in favor of Labor, resulting either in a Labor led coalition (including Arab parties), or in a Labor-Likud “grand coalition” excluding many of the smaller parties.

2. Who does Shas and who does Yachad have surplus voter agreements with?

3. Any guess on who the next PM will be?

4. “”Who does Shas and who does Yachad have surplus voter agreements with?””

   Shas has with UTJ.

   I don’t know who who Yachad has with, if any.

5. There are actually four parties which are polling perilously close to the threshold. From Left to Right they are: Meretz, Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu and Yachad. If Yachad or Yisrael Beiteinu fail it will hurt the right. If Meretz fails it will hurt the left. Shas will join any coalition that will have it but Deri himself is staunchly left-wing and would much rather join a left-wing coalition if given the choice.

6. Deri/Shas and Yahadut ha-Torah will join any coalition that will agree to cancel conscription of yeshiva students (which would probably require a constitutional amendment, and practically might require switching a volunteer/professional army). Nothing else will matter. Therefore the real question is whether Likud and Bayit Yehudi will agree not to throw yeshiva students in prison, and whether the “Right” plus “Hareidim” have 61 seats between them.

7. There a decent chance Herzog will be Prime Minister later this year.