5 Responses

1. Long time to go!

2. Go yishai go go go go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3. 1. The margin of error is plus or minus five seats, largely limiting its predictive value. The margin of error could, result in the hareidi parties being wiped out, or alternatively, in giving them a guaranteed role in deciding who forms the government (as few as only a handful of hareidim if Shas and Yachad fall under the threshold, or as many hareidi members as Labor or Likud if the poll is off in the other direction). THe poll is worthless.

   2. Predictions of the hareidi vote (and Sefardi vote) in general are especially hard to make accurately.

   3. Considering all possibilities, Likud’s route to form a government would require all right wing parties, some centrist parties and perhaps some hareidim. Labor’s combinations would require not only the left and center, but also hareidim and/or Arab parties. This suggests a Likud-Labor coalition may end up as a possibility that might come up.

4. Glad to see Yishai crossing the threshold.

5. Most polls now are showing that shas will get 8/9 seats