The question in Bayit Yehudi is if the Tekuma faction will run independently in the next general election. A Panels poll commissioned by the Knesset Channel reveals some difficult numbers for Bayit Yehudi leader Naftali Bennett, showing the Tekuma faction of his party would earn three seats if elections are held today. It should be pointed out that with the new law raising the minimum threshold to enter Knesset, a party requires four seats to get in. hence sufficient seats for three seats would result in those votes being trashed.
Nevertheless, if Tekuma does decide to split and go on its own, it will result in a loss of at least three seats for Bayit Yehudi even if Tekuma fails to reach the minimum number to enter Knesset.
The poll asked respondents to signal which path of leadership in the dati leumi party is most favorable to them, with 70% standing behind Naftali Bennett and 22% behind Uri Ariel of the Tekuma faction.
If elections were held today why would you vote Bayit Yehudi?
76%: because of Naftali Bennett
8%: because of Uri Ariel
8%: not either of them
The poll asked to rate Tekuma faction leader Housing Minister Ariel’s performance
28%: very good
34%: poor
16%: unable to make a determination
How is Ariel performing regarding construction in Yehuda & Shomron?
52%: He endangers Israel’s standing and image in the international community
30%: His actions strengthen the State of Israel
The poll also included voting for all the parties if elections were held today
Likud – 21 seats (31 today combined with Yisrael Beitenu)
Bayit Yehudi – 17 (12)
Labor – 15 (15)
Yisrael Beitenu – 9 (see Likud)
Yesh Atid -9 (19)
Meretz -9 (6)
Yahadut Hatorah -8 (7)
Shas -8 (11)
Moshe Kahlon – 7 (non-entity today)
Arab parties – 11 (11)
Kadima – 0 (2)
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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One Response
It is less of a problem for Bennett (who definitely has enough support, at present, to guarantee his party will be past the threshold) than for anyone breaking away. In the past a small dissident faction could run on their own and hope to prove their support with as little as 1% of the vote. They will now need four seats to get in – meaning anyone who walks out of Bayit Yehudi (or any other party, needs to get four seats or they are simply walking out of politics and their supporters are wasting their time and money). It puts extreme pressure on smaller factions to be good backbenchers and not risk having to go it alone.