A top White House aide says it’s possible that Russia could invade eastern Ukraine, and even U.S. military assistance would be unlikely to prevent it.
Deputy national security adviser Tony Blinken says Russia seems to be trying intimidate Ukrainians by massing thousands of troops along the border.
But Blinken also tells CNN’s “State of the Union” that “it’s possible they are preparing to move in.”
He says the U.S. is looking at providing military assistance to Ukraine. But he also says “it’s very unlikely to change Russia’s calculus and prevent an invasion.”
Russia’s defense chief has told Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel that Russia had no intention of crossing into Ukrainian territory.
Blinken says economic penalties are working to isolate Russia.
(AP)
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11 Responses
So Obama is our very own Neville Chamberlain! It will be much harder to stop Putin once he’s invaded Ukraine. NOW is the moment to show Putin it’s not worth it. He only understands one language – credible force. It has to be big like destroying the Baltic Fleet’s facilities (which is possible). Putin will brush off all diplomatic and economic pressures.
So is the US going to honor its written commitments to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine? If the US does, could it lead to war with Russia? And if it doesn’t why should anyone assume that an American commitment is worth the paper is written on (especially but hardly limited to Israel).
#1: Destroying the Baltic Fleet’s facilities? Can you say nuclear war?
#2 akuperma: The US never promised to “protect” the territorial integrity of Ukraine. It promised only to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine; as in that the US won’t violate the territorial integrity of Ukraine. It did NOT promise to save Ukraine from others who violate it.
It is not necessary to attack the fleet to render it useless. The port can be blockaded. From afar. Then airspace and land access can be blocked. Then the marine blockade can be tightened. These tactics are kosher for Russia so they must consider them fair. Next is to reunite Kaliningrad with Poland. The Russians who live there can choose to stay or go back to Mother Russia.
Chuck Schwab: Actually the US signed an agreement to guarantee the Ukraine’s territorial integrity in return for Ukrain giving up nukes. At this point, countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and especially ISRAEL for whom American guarantees are a key component of national security now must realize that anything the Americans say or promise is worthless.
A similar situation started with the US abandoning Vietnam, and only ended when George Bush shocked world opinion by defending Kuwait showing the America was no paper tiger. Obama has now embraced a policy of being a paper tiger, and of a US that is unwilling to stand by its word.
AviLondon: You are unrealistic as what you suggest are acts of war that could trigger a nuclear WWIII.
A major complicating issue issue is the success of the Ukrainian Nazi Party. It’s called the “Svoboda Party”, but has called itself the “Socialist Nationalist Party”, and uses a variant of a stylized swastika as its emblem. In its stronghold in western Ukraine it has gotten at times 30 percent of the vote. Among its political successes one of its members was minister of Defense. It’s beginning to look like societal chaos is fertile ground for the Nazis. Check it out at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)
Kaliningrad is surrounded by EU countries. Denying airspace to hostile planes is not an act of war. Land links are subject to agreements that can be terminated. Access by sea via international waters is very limited. Russia knows all this but hopes no one will actually take advantage. Nuclear war means mutual assured destruction. Even Putin is not that crazy.
AviLondon: Denying air space IS an act of war. That is why West Germany and the West were able to fly to West Berlin despite it being surrounded by enemy territory.
And they cannot block the port as Russian ships will simply ignore the “blockade” and just sail right past it.