A poll released on Friday, 18 Cheshvan 5774 in Haaretz shows the Bayit Yehudi party would earn 15 seats if elections were held today. The dati leumi party has 12 seats in the current Knesset. Likud/Beitenu remains the largest party with 32 seats (31 today), Labor 17 (15 today), and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party 10 (19 today).
The left-wing Meretz party would double from today’s 6 seats to 12, The Movement with 5 (6 today) and Yahadut Hatorah 6 (7 today). Kadima remains the same with 2 and the three Arab parties remain the same with a total of 11 seats.
The right-wing emerges with 47 seats, the chareidim are down to 16, center 27, and left-wing 40 seats.
The poll was commissioned by Haaretz, conducted by Dialogue, Dr. Camil Fuchs. The poll shows 44% satisfaction with PM Netanyahu, 46% satisfaction with DM Ya’alon and 75% dissatisfaction with Lapid’s performance.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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3 Responses
What about Shas?
#1- 10 seats.
Israel polls tend e very unreliable. With proportional reprsentation, the error margin of a typical poll is the difference between landslide and wipeout (in the US, the error margin is between landslide and comfortable win, or a comfortable win and a close election).
In addition many (most) Israelis came from countries where giving the “wrong” answer to the poll (as in “Is fearless leader doing a good job?”) had very bad consequence – so they tend to give the answer the pollster wants to hear, and since they assume the pollster is a secular Ashkenazi, the more secular and more more Ashkenazi a party is, the better it does in the polls relative to the elections.
Lastly, most hareidim (and to a lesser extent non-affluent Sefardim and Arabs) are hard to poll, and therefore their parties tend to do much better in elections than in polling.