Starting the race as a perceived underdog, Theresa Scavo has emerged as the favorite to win the September 10 Democratic primaries in the 48th Council district. Her Democratic challengers are Chaim Deutsch, Igor Oberman, Ari Kagan and Natraj Bhushan. Waiting for these candidates on the Republican side for the general election is former State Senator David Storobin, who also has also secured the Conservative, Independence and School Choice lines.

Bhushan is a young attorney who has had a hard time gaining traction, raising only $4,465, most of it from himself and his family. With only about a thousand dollars left in his campaign, it is questionable whether he’ll be able to continue, as he’s even had trouble earning the support of his fellow Pakistani-Americans because their community leaders are close to Councilman Mike Nelson who’s backing Deutsch.

Other Democratic candidates have all been on a massive spending spree with Deutsch at $63,258, Oberman at $64,372 (including liabilities he owes), and Kagan spending the most at $64,820. By law, those who participate in the matching funds program – which every CD48 candidate is – are limited to spending $168,000 on the primary.

Much of their spending was on consultants and paid campaign workers. The need to spend this much came from the lack of volunteer help these candidates have been confronted with.

In sharp contrast, Ms. Scavo spent only $14,160, less than a quarter what the others spent. According to reliable sources who have spoken to YWN, she has over 90 volunteers helping her campaign. The volunteers come not only from her own contacts, but also due to the support for Scavo from all the local Democratic clubs: the 41st, the 45th and the 46th, each with hundreds of regular primary voters. Kagan has the official support of the Brooklyn Democratic Chairman Frank Seddio, but his base is in Mill Basin and Canarsie. Seddio’s base is also more liberal, while the local CD48 clubs are known to take centrist positions that are more in line with local voters.

What’s more interesting is the fact that during petitioning, Seddio quietly sent half his available people to help Scavo, helping her as much as he helped Kagan.

Surprising many, Scavo got the support of the Sephardic community, both their media and their community leaders. As the Chairperson of Community Board 15, which covers much of the Sephardic-majority areas, she’s had the chance to establish good will by helping many in that community, and they are now helping her in return. At the beginning of the race, political observers believed that as fellow Orthodox Jews, the Sephardic community would side with Chaim Deutsch, but that does not seem to have happened. Sephardic Jews make up close to 10% of the voters in the Democratic primary.

Less surprising is the support Scavo, an Italian-American, received from Catholic voters, who are her natural base. She also has the support of the key secular Jews in the district, including Assemblyman Steven Cymbrowitz and the long-time district leader Mike Geller. Showing his strength and popularity, last year Cymbrowitz, who’s neither Orthodox nor Russian, defeated Ben Akselrod, who’s both Orthodox and Russian, despite the fact that his district is made up overwhelmingly of these two groups. Cymbrowitz’s Assembly district overlaps significantly with CD48.

Catholics and secular Jews make up about 30% of the vote in this Councilmatic district. Together with Sephardim, as well as members of the three Democratic clubs, Scavo’s base seems to be over 40% of the Democrats. With five candidates in the race, that should be enough to win on September 10. Having a huge volunteer base and $50,000 more in the bank because she so far spent less than others, gives her the extra edge she needs. As the primary inches closer and others keep spending money, Scavo may have as much as $70,000 extra on campaign advertising and mailers.

This was not how the race started. Scavo was widely regarded as the underdog in the race, believed to be a lock to finish 4th behind the two Russians – Ari Kagan and Igor Oberman – and the Orthodox candidate Chaim Deutsch. Observers argued that this district simply does not fit her demographically, with Kagan seen as the prohibitive favorite because of his background as a known Russian journalist.

But Kagan has struggled to break out of his base, made up of Russian retirees. He doubled down by choosing to go with Davidzon radio, which is also marketed to the elderly Russians. The rival Russian radio station Danu, which targets middle-aged people, has been heavily in favor of Igor Oberman, thus splitting the Russian vote. (The trouble for Oberman, however, is that middle-aged Russians are predominantly registered Republicans with only a few hundred Democratic primary votes expected from this group.)

Kagan, as well as Assembly candidate Ben Akselrod, are also thought to have suffered after choosing to support Lew Fidler in the March 2012 Special Elections when Storobin won the Senate race. Not only did most Russians vote for Storobin, but half a year later, the Russian turnout on Brighton Beach for Akselrod’s Assembly primary and Kagan’s District Leader race was half what they expected. Their backer Gregory Davidzon, the owner of one of the Russian radio stations, was privately stunned that Akselrod lost the race after he dedicated his radio to promoting his candidacy for four months.

Speaking with a heavy Russian accent, Kagan has had trouble with other demographics, often losing more votes than he gains when branching out of Brighton Beach. Even younger Russians expressed doubt as to his effectiveness as a potential Councilman due to his poor English.

Kagan has relied on the support of Councilman Dominic Recchia to win Italian-American votes, but it is highly doubtful that he can move this vote away from Scavo. It also has not helped that two local female Democratic leaders are calling on people to vote for “anyone but Kagan.”

Kagan hopes that the support of John Liu, for whom he works as a part-time assistant, would bring in the Chinese vote around Avenue U, but as a new immigrant group their citizenship, registration and turnout rates are tiny. Liu has had his own problems in recent months over allegations of illegal fundraising that led to his staffers getting indicted and imprisoned. Last week, he lost $3.5 million in matching funds, leaving his campaign on the ropes, unable to either advertise or work to get out the vote. Outside of Liu himself, Kagan was the biggest loser of the $3.5 million flop because he hoped that Chinese-Americans would be his second support group in addition to the elderly Russians, and viewed their high turnout as key to his victory.

For similar reasons insiders are now less than hopeful about the chances of Deutsch’s victory. He’s focused exclusively on the Orthodox vote, which at around 20-25% is not enough to win. According to Russian sources, Deutsch has had some success when he went to campaign on Brighton Beach, speaking Yiddish to the Russian elderly who live in the senior housing along the boardwalk. That said, outside of the few dozen people he met in his one outing on the boardwalk, almost no Russian knows his name right now. That makes winning a challenge in a district branded by the media as “Super-Russian.”

Deutsch hopes to split the Chinese vote with the support of Sam Tsang and other community leaders that are close to Mike Nelson, but sources in the Chinese community say that he has not actively courted their vote and Kagan has been appearing at their events much more regularly.

And so, Theresa Scavo, the long-time political activist and community organizer, has emerged as the unlikely strong favorite based on her coalition of Catholics, Sephardim, secular Jews, and the local Democratic clubs. Sources in both the Republican and Conservative parties now privately say that they expect that their candidate David Storobin will face Scavo in November. Her victory may be the next Cinderella story to shock the political landscape.

Mr. Storobin’s hope in facing Mr. Deutch as the Democratic nominee may not be fulfilled. Nonetheless, the district as a heavy conservative oriented electorate may make it easier for Storobin to score a comeback after his devastating lose in November 2012.

(Jacob Kornbluh – YWN)