If there’s one blog that has a record of predicting elections outcome ahead of time, it is the NY Times Five Thirty Eight Blog.  In 2012 during the presidential elections, Nate Silver was the only pundit that confidently predicted the election outcome based on analysis of public opinion polls.

In this year’s mayoral election, while it may be seen as a wide open race, Mike Cohen already presumes City Council Speaker Christine C. Quinn will very likely win the Democratic nomination in September, or in an October runoff. The early Democratic front-runner in recent New York City mayoral races has a near perfect record in going on to win the party’s nomination, according to an analysis of public opinion surveys conducted since 1989.

In five of the past six Democratic primaries for mayor, the candidate who led in an average of polls conducted in the first six months of the election year advanced to the general election, Silver writes. The only exception was in 2009, when Anthony  Weiner led Bill Thompson Jr. by five percentage points but decided to opt out.

In this year’s mayoral race Ms. Quinn has a lead of 17 percentage points in an average of the seven primary polls conducted so far this year. Although her level of support has fallen 39% percent in January to 24% in the most recent Marist poll, she has managed to maintain a lead over her opponents which include Mr. Weiner.

Based on historical precedents and polls analysis, Five Thirty Eight, largely known as the Nate Silver blog, predicts:  “Ms. Quinn is likely to win the Democratic nomination, even if she has to face a runoff election first.”

Cohen has one glimpse of hope for the top four candidates polling in double digits. “While the early front-runner virtually always secures the nomination, underdogs have leapfrogged other candidates to finish in the top tier (although never to win). In 2005, Mr. Weiner was barely in double digits in the first 15 polls of the year, but secured 29 percent of the primary vote, finishing in second place. In 1997, early surveys showed the Rev. Al Sharpton with just 9 percent of the vote, but he, too, went on to finish second in the primary, winning 32 percent of the vote.”

(Jacob Kornbluh – YWN)