After all the votes have been counted and the final tally in, the decision makers and negotiators are working to launch coalition talks based on the assumption the presidential mandate will be given to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu by President Peres next week.
Following is a number of possible coalition possibilities.
NETANYAHU’S PREFERENCE
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu – 31
Yesh Atid – 19 (50)
Shas – 11 (61)
Kadima -2 (63)
Opposition:
Labor – 15
Yahadut Hatorah – 7 (22)
The Movement – 6 (28)
Meretz – 6 (34)
Arab parties – 11 (45)
Bayit HaYehudi – 12 (May go either way; opposition or coalition)
LAPID’S DREAM
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu – 31
Yesh Atid – 19 (50)
Bayit HaYehudi – 12 (62)
The Movement – 6 (68)
Kadima -2 (70)
Opposition:
Labor – 15
Shas – 11 (26)
Yahadut Hatorah – 7 (33)
Meretz – 6 (39)
Arab parties – 11 (50)
SHARE THE BURDEN COALITION
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu – 31
Yesh Atid – 19 (50)
Bayit HaYehudi – 12 (62)
The Movement – 6 (68)
Kadima -2 (70)
Opposition:
Labor – 15
Shas – 11 (26)
Yahadut Hatorah – 7 (33)
Meretz – 6 (39)
Arab parties – 11 (50)
JUMPSTART TALKS WITH THE PA
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu – 31
Yesh Atid – 19 (50)
Shas – 11 (61)
The Movement – 6 (67)
Kadima -2 (69)
Opposition:
Labor – 15
Bayit HaYehudi – 12 (27)
Yahadut Hatorah – 7 (34)
Meretz – 6 (40)
Arab parties – 11 (51)
BROAD-BASED COALITION /STABILITY
Coalition:
Likud/Beitenu – 31
Yesh Atid – 19 (50)
Bayit HaYehudi – 12 (62)
Shas – 11 (73)
Yahadut Hatorah – 7 (80)
Kadima -2 (82)
Opposition:
Labor – 15
Arab parties – 11 (26)
Meretz – 6 (32)
The Movement – 6 (38)
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3 Responses
Based on what is appearing in the secular media, the rank and file of Likud/Beitenu will not be pleased with any coalition the fails to implement conscription of yeshiva students. Given that alienation of this constituency in the last election, which led to mass defections (a handful to Bayit Yehudi over security issues, but mostly to Yesh Atid over conscription) – Likud is unlikely to form any coalition that will fail to implement conscription of yeshiva students. Remember also that unless the kenesset affirmatively acts, the “default” is to being conscription of all yeshiva students at age 18 for three years into regular units with imprisonment for resistors.
I wonder why Netanyahu would prefer Shas and not UTJ in his coalition. Where does this info come from? Once he’s already bringing in the Charedim he would bring in UTJ with them, no?
#2 You need to review the years of Shas and UTJ in the coalitions. Shas is a GLOBAL party that works for a diverse constituents & more likely to compromise and vote with Bibi on settlement destructions & peace talks. UTJ prides themselves on being a party of Avrechim and only involves themselves with those needs.