According to Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Iran’s respite from building a nuclear bomb is temporary, and “Tehran will have to be confronted by next summer” he explained in an interview with the UK Telegraph.

In a most revealing interview, the defense minister confirms the situation abated during the summer when Iran used a third of its medium-enriched uranium for civilian purposes, pushing off the date of competing a nuclear bomb by 8-to-10 months. Barak feels that if this was not the case, the situation “would probably have peaked” before the US presidential elections.

Barak made a point of stating Israel reserves the right to act alone, explaining any action taken will be far less dangerous today than after Iran becomes a nuclear power. He is not naïve and states that Iran has one goal, to build the bomb and today, it has amassed a stockpile of enriched uranium that has grown from 850kg to 6.8 tons. The minister explains that the situation is being monitored for if not, Iran may reach “a zone of immunity”, explaining if the enrichment facility in the mountainside at Fordow becomes invulnerable, Israel will no longer be able to address the threat independently, compelling Israel to rely on the international community and this defies the principle of self-reliance.

Mr. Barak goes back to the summer, when the enriched uranium was used for civilian purposes, and when asked if this had not been so, would the moment of truth have arrived “by now”, to which he replied “most likely”.

The senior minister made it very clear, that Iran remains determined to build a nuclear weapon, predicting such a success would trigger a Mideast arms race that would “make any non-proliferation regime impossible. Saudi Arabia will turn nuclear within weeks – according to them. Turkey will turn nuclear in several years. The new Egypt will have to follow”. This he states would guarantee that a nuclear weapon would eventually land up in the hands of terrorists.

Barak, who has personally taken part in many of Israel’s most highly-classified and complex missions explains that Israel must address this situation and “cannot delegate responsibility” by simply relying on allies, not even Israel’s most trusted ally. He fears Iran reaching that “zone of immunity” following which an Israeli attack or possibly even an American attack may not be capable of changing the course of events. He acknowledges the economic sanctions leveled against Iran are “unprecedented” but remains skeptical nonetheless, explaining he has a wealth of experience in this region. He does not feel the “ayatollahs will sit together” but more likely is the scenario they will follow in the footsteps of Pakistan and N. Korea, to become a nuclear power.

“It’s not a minor decision to contemplate an operation against Iran, but however complicated, dangerous – it probably carries some unintended consequences – an operation against Iran could be now – think of what it means to try it when Iran is already nuclear, several years down the stream,” he said.

“It would be much more complicated, much more dangerous and – with far-reaching, unintended potential consequences – much more costly in terms of human lives.”

Mr Barak offered a message of cold realism. “Don’t misread me,” he said. “We would love to wake up one morning and learn, against my expectations that the ayatollahs gave it up. I don’t believe it will happen.”

(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)