Two years after Florida Democrats celebrated their role in the election of Barack Obama and the ouster of two Republican congressmen, the nation’s largest swing state is poised to tilt back toward the GOP, a pivot that could dramatically alter the dynamic for the president’s 2012 election campaign.

The backslide came into focus Thursday as the Democratic drama surrounding the state’s open Senate race spilled into public view.

Former President Bill Clinton’s efforts to persuade Rep. Kendrick Meek to drop out of the contest during a trip to Florida last week, an acknowledgment of the congressman’s distant third-place showing in most public polls, was defensive in nature: Meek’s withdrawal, the thinking went, would deliver core Democratic voters to Gov. Charlie Crist’s independent bid in a last-ditch attempt to stop rising GOP star Marco Rubio, who leads in the polls.

Rubio isn’t simply a potential problem for Florida Democrats. A fresh-faced, Cuban-American conservative, the former state House Speaker is already being talked about as a possible vice presidential candidate in 2012. Democrats from the White House to Miami believe the GOP will look to put Rubio on the 2012 ticket, a move that could siphon off the Hispanic vote and make Florida — and its 29 electoral votes — even more of a tossup.

“He will be short listed,” said Jeff Garcia, the campaign manager for Democratic congressional candidate Joe Garcia, who is running to win an open, Republican-held seat in the Miami area.

It’s not just the Senate race where the Democratic signs of strain are showing. And it’s not the only contest on the ballot with national implications. Florida is one of the most target-rich states for Republicans, with as many as four Democratic-held House seats up for grabs. Even the attorney general election has potential fallout: Florida is one of 19 states challenging Obama’s health care reform bill, a lawsuit that will proceed if Republican Pam Bondi, a tea party candidate who has a slight lead in the polls, prevails.

Few elections in the nation, however, are as consequential for Obama’s reelection — and for the national Democratic Party as a whole — as the one for Florida governor. There, Democratic nominee Alex Sink’s fortunes could be hurt by the attempts to push Meek out since his rough treatment could drive down African-American turnout, which is critical to her chances.

Obama already is playing a prominent role in that contest. If Republican Rick Scott wins on Tuesday, it will be in large part because he successfully tied his Democratic opponent, Alex Sink, to Obama.
Scott has been able to keep Sink on the defensive, despite his checkered business background, by linking Sink to Obama with every other breath.

“If you like Barack Obama as president,” a typical Scott ad goes, “you’d love Alex Sink as governor.”

As a result, says Roger Handberg, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, the success of Obama’s 2012 campaign in Florida “may rest on who wins the gubernatorial race.”

“Because if Sink wins, that gives them a Democrat who is going to be in a state dominated by Republicans,” Handberg said. “And at least it will allow things like reapportionment to not be quite as bad as it could be as far as Democrats are concerned.”

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(Read More: Politico)