The race for New York City mayor is in the homestretch, and if today were Election Day, Mayor Michael Bloomberg would handily win a third term. Bloomberg currently leads Democratic challenger Bill Thompson — 53% to 38% — among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Bloomberg’s lead among likely voters is consistent with the results of a Marist survey last week when Bloomberg received 52% to Thompson’s 36%.

Looking at political party, 45% of likely Democratic voters report they will back Bloomberg on Tuesday while 47% say they will support Thompson. On the Republican side, 74% of likely GOP voters are behind Bloomberg compared with 17% for Thompson. 60% of non-enrolled voters back Bloomberg, and 27% say they will cast their ballot for Thompson.

Among registered voters citywide, Bloomberg leads Thompson, 48% to 37%, a difference of 11 percentage points. Last week, Bloomberg garnered 47% of registered voters’ support while Thompson received 38%, a gap of 9 percentage points.

Meanwhile the Thompson campaign released there own poll On Thursday afternoon, the pollster, Geoffrey Garin, and Mr. Thompson’s campaign manager, Eduardo Castell, held an unusual conference call to disclose the results of an internal poll of 614 New Yorkers. According to The NY Times  It showed that:

1. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg’s lead is just 46 percent to 38 percent, with 17 percent percent undecided.

2. Among those who say they are certain to vote (305, a fairly small sample), Mr. Bloomberg leads 44 percent to 41 percent, with 15 percent undecided.

3. Mr. Thompson is winning the Hispanic vote, 43 percent to 40 percent.

4. Forty-three percent of voters know that President Obama has endorsed Mr. Thompson.

Even more caveats: The margin of sampling error for the overall poll is four percentage points, with an even bigger figure for the subset of voters who say they are certain to vote.

And these kinds of internal polls do not meet the polling standards that The New York Times other news media outlets and other polling groups use when conducting polls.

Leaving all that aside, the campaign suggested (contrary to conventional wisdom) that the race is up for grabs, since so many voters have not made up their minds, are angry about term limits and have negative feelings toward Mr. Bloomberg.

Mr. Garin, president of Peter D. Hart Research Associates, declared that “the dynamic in the race right now is very much in Bill Thompson’s direction.”

Asked what that means, he explained that ongoing polling, over many months, shows that Mr. Thompson is closing the gap in the race, slowly but consistently.

That, he said, explains why Mr. Bloomberg was so aggressive during the second mayoral debate on Tuesday night. (“His demeanor was almost maniacal,” Mr. Garin said, adding that Mr. Bloomberg “was negative from start to finish.”)

(Source: Marist Poll)