NASA has issued a chilling new update on asteroid YR4 2024, increasing the probability of a direct impact with Earth to 1-in-38 (2.6%), the highest recorded risk yet. This alarming jump follows weeks of escalating odds, which initially stood at 1-in-83 before climbing to 1-in-67, 1-in-53, 1-in-43, and now its most frightening probability.

If the worst-case scenario unfolds, YR4—measuring between 131 and 295 feet in diameter—could strike Earth with a force equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, about 500 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The asteroid’s projected impact path spans eight densely populated cities, including Bogota, Lagos, Mumbai, and Chennai, placing an estimated 110 million people at risk.

Since late January, NASA has classified YR4 as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Scale, marking it as a “close encounter meriting attention by astronomers” and capable of “localized destruction” should it collide.

Despite these rising odds, scientists urge caution before sounding a full-scale alarm. “Just because it’s gone up in the last week doesn’t mean that it’s going to continue,” explained Hugh Lewis, professor of astronautics at the University of Southampton.

Molly L. Wasser, a NASA official, echoed similar sentiments, explaining that many objects previously deemed hazardous were later ruled out. However, she warned that YR4’s impact probability “could also continue to rise.”

Adding to the urgency, the asteroid will soon slip behind the Sun in April, making it impossible for Earth-based telescopes to track until it reemerges in 2028. Until then, astronomers are racing against time to gather data using the James Webb Space Telescope, which will help pinpoint its exact size and determine the extent of damage a collision could cause.

For now, the world watches and waits—hoping that YR4’s path changes before it’s too late.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)