Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball projects a razor-thin margin in the battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, with Democrats favored to secure 218 seats—just enough for a majority—while Republicans are expected to take 217. The forecast, published on Monday, underscores how close this year’s House races are expected to be.

In their final analysis, Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman remarked on the uncertainty and tight margins in this election cycle. “Just like the presidential race, the battle for the House has been a toss-up for essentially the whole cycle,” they wrote. “Our general belief throughout was that the presidential and House winner was likelier than not to be the same. Our final ratings reflect this, but only by the barest possible margin and with little confidence.”

The forecast sees 218 seats categorized as Safe, Likely, or Leaning Democratic, compared to 217 that are Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House but face an uphill battle to retain it, with The Hill/Decision Desk HQ estimating their chances of success at 52%.

Notable shifts in the predictions include Iowa’s 1st District, where incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ race has moved from “Leans Republican” to “Leans Democratic.” Meanwhile, the analysts see Democratic Reps. Eric Sorensen of Illinois, Pat Ryan of New York, and Angie Craig of Minnesota as increasingly secure, shifting their races from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” after Republicans failed to gain traction against these incumbents. Any surprise losses among these Democrats would be, the editors noted, “a huge upset.”

The forecasters also pointed to some lesser-known races that have seen little attention from major outside spending groups. These include Maryland’s 6th District, an open Democratic seat extending northwest from the D.C. suburbs, which has moved from “Likely” to “Leans Democratic.” A similar shift is observed in New York’s 1st District, where Republican Rep. Nick LaLota faces former CNN commentator John Avlon, a Democrat.

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