New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn says that so-called “shy Trump voters” could once again skew poll results in favor of former President Donald Trump. In a report based on the Times’ final poll with Siena College, Cohn highlighted inconclusive results in seven key battleground states, noting potential polling inaccuracies due to nonresponse bias among Republican voters.

The final survey shows a mixed picture in battleground states, with Trump leading Kamala Harris by four points in Arizona and one point in Michigan. Harris, meanwhile, leads by one point in Georgia and three points in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Both candidates are neck and neck in Pennsylvania, widely considered a critical swing state for either side.

Cohn pointed out that while Harris appears to have made slight gains in some areas, these improvements are primarily in states where she was previously trailing.

“On average, Ms. Harris fared modestly better than our last round of surveys of the same states, but her gains were concentrated in states where she was previously struggling,” he explained. However, he noted that the “Blue Wall” states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—are not as solidly in her corner as they once seemed, leaving her position in the Electoral College unchanged.

A key factor potentially affecting the poll results, according to Cohn, is nonresponse bias, where certain voters, often Republicans, are less likely to respond to surveys. In 2020, similar biases led to significant polling errors, underestimating Trump’s support. “

White Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans,” Cohn said, describing this gap as a troubling indicator for poll accuracy. “It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)