Election analyst Nate Silver has released his latest forecast, showing an incredibly close race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. In his update on the Silver Bulletin Substack on Sunday, Silver assigned Trump a 51.5 percent chance of winning the electoral college, with Harris just behind at 48.1 percent.
“It’s a pure toss-up,” Silver posted on X.
Silver’s forecast factors in new swing-state polling from both Morning Consult and The New York Times. According to the Times polls, Harris holds an edge, leading in four out of seven key battleground states, tying in two, and trailing only in Arizona. Trump, however, shows strength in the Morning Consult data, leading in three swing states and tying in two others.
A surprising Iowa poll by the esteemed Ann Selzer, showing Harris ahead by three points, caught many observers off guard. Although Silver believes this Iowa result may not ultimately sway the electoral college outcome, he acknowledged that Harris supporters are right to celebrate the poll.
“Harris voters are reasonable in rejoicing over the Selzer survey,” Silver wrote. “At the very least, it confirms that high-quality pollsters see a path to victory for Harris, even as many polls show Trump in a strong position. If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it has now petered out in November. We’ll likely go into Tuesday night with a true toss-up on our hands, without a clear lean toward either candidate.”
Silver’s current forecast reflects an even tighter race than in previous cycles. In 2020, he gave Joe Biden an 89 percent chance of victory, and in 2016, he assigned Trump a roughly 30 percent chance — higher than most other forecasters at the time. As the clock ticks down, all eyes are on the final days of polling, with Americans bracing for what could be one of the closest elections in recent history.
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One Response
Nate Silver is a Democrate and probably got an emergency call frol Trums appoinent in the US presidentail race Barak Obama that he should lower the Inthusiasum and momentum Trump gained in Oct. A direct call from the thug Obama (with probably a cash reward on the side) has accomplished what it had to and the outcome is the sudden last minute “NEW” predectionof Nate Silver.
Fake news !!!