Christophe Barraud, celebrated as the “world’s most accurate economist,” is forecasting a victory for Donald Trump in the presidential race, and Republicans likely to secure full control of Congress. Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, sees a Trump win as likely to boost the U.S. economy in the short term, but he cautions that longer-term economic challenges, especially related to the growing national deficit, could emerge.

“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, and financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep,” Barraud wrote on X.

A highly ranked forecaster for the U.S. economy for 11 of the past 12 years, Barraud suggests that while a Republican victory in both the Senate and House appears feasible, the House remains a closer contest.

In a scenario where Republicans control both Congress and the White House, Barraud predicts the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) could see a jump of 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025. However, he also warned that if Trump were to pursue significant tax cuts without corresponding spending cuts, the national deficit could spiral, pushing the 10-year Treasury bond yield up to 5% over time. Despite this, Barraud believes a Trump administration’s policies could drive GDP growth beyond consensus forecasts of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

While polls currently show the race as tight, Trump leads in RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregates. Election forecaster Allan Lichtman, known for his historically accurate predictions, leans toward a Harris win, while data analyst Nate Silver says he has a “gut” feeling that Trump will prevail.

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