Former President Donald Trump has surpassed Vice President Kamala Harris in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast for the first time this cycle. As of Sunday, the model gives Trump a 52% chance of winning the presidency, while Harris trails behind with a 42% chance.

This shift in momentum marks a significant change from late August, when Harris held a steady lead with 54-56% chances of winning, compared to Trump’s 44-46%. However, in early October, the dynamics began to shift, with both candidates’ chances nearing 50%. On October 17, the model predicted a dead heat, but by this Sunday, Trump had taken the advantage.

Trump’s improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two crucial battleground states, have contributed to this shift. Previously, these states leaned slightly toward Harris, but Trump has now gained ground. Additionally, Trump maintains a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Pennsylvania remains the sole swing state favoring Harris in its polling average, but the race remains a toss-up due to the narrow margins within the margin of error. The outcome of the 2024 election hinges on these seven swing states, which will determine whether Trump or Harris reaches the critical 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither candidate has a clear lead in enough states to secure this number.

Key Swing States:

– Wisconsin: Trump gains ground, narrowing Harris’s lead
– Michigan: Trump’s improved polling averages shift the state’s dynamics
– Arizona: Trump maintains a slim advantage
– Georgia: Trump holds a narrow lead
– North Carolina: Trump’s advantage remains steady
– Pennsylvania: Harris’s sole remaining lead among swing states
– Remaining swing states: Too close to call, within the margin of error

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)