In recent weeks, Iran has faced a series of devastating setbacks, including the deaths of key military commanders and significant losses within Hezbollah, its most powerful ally. These developments have led to fears among analysts and former U.S. officials that Iran may now be more likely to pursue nuclear weapons as a final deterrent against its adversaries, the Washington Post reports.

Israel’s recent military campaign, including airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and missile attacks on Iranian forces and allies, has left Tehran scrambling. Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on Israel, while visually dramatic, failed to inflict the severe damage intended, prompting concerns that Iran may be considering a more drastic option: nuclear escalation.

“Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned after the missile barrage on Tel Aviv. Israeli leaders, alarmed by Iran’s increasing proximity to acquiring nuclear weapons capability, have signaled that further retaliation could be on the horizon. Netanyahu emphasized that Iran’s regime “does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and to retaliate against our enemies.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded with a mix of defiance and grief during Friday prayers in Tehran, describing the missile attack as “extraordinary” and “legitimate.” However, he also acknowledged the losses Iran has suffered, including the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, whom Khamenei described as a “brother” and a “shining jewel of Lebanon.” Khamenei vowed that Iran would continue to support the resistance, stating that the country would neither “procrastinate nor hurry in doing our duty.”

For years, Iran has moved closer to nuclear weapons capability, especially following the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal after former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018. Since then, Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment program and built stockpiles of enriched uranium, positioning itself to potentially produce a nuclear weapon, according to U.S. and U.N. assessments.

David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a nonprofit based in Washington, noted that Iran’s weakened “axis of resistance,” which includes Hezbollah, Hamas, and other militias, may prompt Tehran to rely more heavily on the threat of nuclear weapons. “If the axis of resistance isn’t working, then the only deterrent might be a nuclear deterrent,” Albright said.

The recent setbacks for Hezbollah, in particular, have been a blow to Iran’s regional influence. “When you think of a chessboard, Hezbollah is Iran’s queen,” said Sina Azodi, a lecturer at George Washington University and expert on Iran. “The degradation of Hezbollah gives Israel more freedom of action in the region.”

Inside Iran, there has been a notable shift in rhetoric regarding nuclear weapons since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. Iranian leaders, who once denied any intention to develop nuclear weapons, have more recently suggested that they possess the capability to build a bomb but have chosen not to. “In terms of our national security, we do not want to do it,” said Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, in January.

A report by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence in February warned that Iran had made significant progress toward nuclear capability since 2020, when it publicly declared that it no longer felt bound by the 2015 nuclear deal’s restrictions. According to U.S. officials, Iran could potentially produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in a matter of days if it chose to.

The international community now waits to see how Israel will respond to Iran’s missile attack. Israeli retaliation could target Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, a move that some experts believe could further escalate tensions in the region. Gregory Koblentz, an associate professor and nonproliferation expert at George Mason University, explained that with Hezbollah’s missile forces neutralized, Israel may view this as a “window of opportunity” to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

However, even a successful Israeli strike might only delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions rather than end them. A former White House adviser on nonproliferation, speaking anonymously, warned that such an attack could harden Iran’s resolve to pursue nuclear weapons. “It could lead to a change in Iranian nuclear intentions — going from a covert threshold program to an overt weapons program,” the former adviser said. “It could — and likely would — lead to an Iranian escalation.”

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