Pollster Nate Silver is now predicting an Electoral College landslide for former President Donald Trump. According to Silver’s latest forecast, published on his blog Silver Bulletin, Trump now holds a 63.8 percent chance of winning the majority of the Electoral College vote, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 36 percent.
Silver’s model marks a stark change from earlier projections, which had favored Harris or suggested a narrow race. The shift comes after the release of Sunday’s New York Times/Siena College poll, one of Silver’s “highest rated pollsters,” which put Trump ahead of Harris by a margin of 48 percent to 47 percent — within the poll’s 3-point margin of error. Based on Silver’s model, Trump is now predicted to secure 312 electoral votes, a larger margin than his 304-vote victory against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Harris, by contrast, is forecasted to win 226 electoral votes.
Silver’s model places Trump ahead in all the key swing states, positioning him strongly ahead of the ABC News-hosted presidential debate on Tuesday. However, Silver cautioned that the debate could still alter the current trajectory.
While Silver’s forecast predicts a Trump victory in the Electoral College, it still gives Harris a slight edge in the popular vote, with a 56 percent chance of winning compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
Despite Silver’s projection, other models present a more competitive race. RealClearPolitics has Harris narrowly ahead with 273 electoral votes, while Project 538 forecasts a win for Harris with 281 electoral votes to Trump’s 257. The race remains tight in several crucial battleground states.
Meanwhile, CNN elections expert Harry Enten issued a stark warning to the Harris campaign, warning that her support in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania is rapidly eroding, and questioned whether picking the state’s governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate would have been a wiser decision than tapping Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Watch Enten’s comments below.
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10 Responses
unless the democraps steal the election again.
By this time in 2020, Trump also seemed pretty secure. With his uncontrolled mouth he blew it in the last 4-6 weeks. Will he do that again? We hope not but time will tell.
A lot depends on the debate. Trump should keep his mouth if he wants to win.
We can still hope and daven that this corrupt danger to democracy, America, and Jews loses bigly and that his poisonous MAGA ideology is relegated to the dustbin of history.
G-d bless President Trump
Maybe the Democrats and the evil they increasingly represent be exposed for all to see
Sorry ‘May’ not ‘Maybe’
Trump is that slick con artist who fools people. Many of his loyal rally goers are not benefiting from his policies at all. He is not anyone’s friend and can turn into an enemy just like that if it benefits him. Stability should be a voters number one goal. He built no wall he took top secret documents and he tried to stay on after he lost the election.
A lot depends on the debate tonight. If Trump doesn’t lose control of himself and keeps himself refrained he will crush Harris In the debate. This will signifintely Increase his chance of wininng especially In PA where the debate is taking place.
Donlad ! Keep yourself calm tonight !!!!!
crazykanoiy and WaterCooler who are you?? You certainly don’t sound like people who care for Jews
Bull. Hate America and loathe Americans