CNN’s Harry Enten issued a cautionary note to Democrats on Tuesday, stressing that despite Vice President Kamala Harris’s recent momentum in the polls, former President Donald Trump remains a formidable contender in the 2024 presidential race.
“We put out those poll numbers yesterday, you know, New York Times-Siena College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos polling, all of which showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum and enthusiasm potentially on her side. But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before,” Enten began.
Enten highlighted the historical context of polling inaccuracies, particularly in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. “So August 13, how far where the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and this is in 2016 and 2020 — Trump was [under]estimated both times around and by significant margins. Take a look here, in 2016 the average poll in those states they mentioned, those Great Lakes battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one-off, look at this: He was underestimated by five points on average.”
Enten noted that Harris’s current lead in the New York Times-Siena College polls is four points in each of these crucial battleground states. However, he urged caution, saying, “The bottom line is this: If you have any idea- if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years.”
Furthermore, Enten pointed out that while there is growing enthusiasm around Harris’s campaign, polling data indicates that Republicans are slightly more likely and Democrats slightly less likely to say they will vote compared to a few months ago.
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3 Responses
It’s ok democrats
Don’t believe him
Everything will turn out alright
Just follow your נביאים
Wait until after the convention, and after Labor Day. Neither candidate has said what their foreign policy will be (if Iran invades Israel, if Russia invades Poland, if China attacks Taiwan, if North Korea attacks South Korea).
Will Trump tell his supporters to boycott the election to protest liberal use of absentee ballots, or will the Republicans have a “ground game” to get their supporters to vote by whatever means a given state allows?
Will Trump be able to control himself and discuss Harris’s past policy stands, or will be stick to name calling (including attacks of Biden and Clinton, which are now irrelevant).
Trump is now going full out racist in his campaign. If this succeeds it will be bad for America and bad for Jews.