Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in both major polling averages from RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris’s lead, which initially narrowed to 0.2 percent, has widened to 1.8 percent, placing her at 45.2% compared to Trump’s 43.4%. Meanwhile, in the RCP average, Trump started with nearly a two-point lead, but Harris now holds a half-point advantage, with 47.4% to Trump’s 46.9%.
It’s important to note the differences in how these averages are calculated. The RCP average looks back at the previous two weeks of qualifying polls and produces an unweighted average. This method has its pros and cons, as it can be influenced by the number of polls using a “likely voter” model or outliers from lower-rated pollsters.
Conversely, the FiveThirtyEight average uses a more complex formula that weights results based on pollster ratings, sample sizes, and state polling results, aiming for a more stable and comprehensive gauge of public opinion.
While neither average should be disregarded, they each offer unique insights. The more volatile RCP average can quickly identify emerging trends but may also amplify the impact of outlier polls, leading to fluctuating headlines. On the other hand, the FiveThirtyEight average provides a steadier view of the race, though it may not react as swiftly to new trends.
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8 Responses
1. There usually is a boom when a candidate is first chosen.
2. The Democrats have yet to have their convention or adopt a platform (e.g. will they adopt a pro-Israel or a pro-Hamas platform, will there be pro-Hamas riots, etc.).
3. Assuming the Republicans don’t repeat their blunder of 2020 by telling their voters to stay home (as they did in some states, to protest liberalized absentee rules), the usual rule is the Republican do better in actual voting than polling (reflecting bias perceived by pollsters).
4. If pollsters were selling securities, rather than data, they would be prosecuted for fraud for claiming their data has any meaning, especially prior to the the conventions.
Baruch Hashem. Let’s hope things continue in this direction.
FiveThirtyEight is by ABC news.
All you need to know…
It’s just like 2016 all over again. Somehow if trump is actually leading the polls show him down but within the margin of error….
AYidIsErlich
It’s a chillul hashem (at least according to Rabbi Avigdor Miller and common sense) for a frum yid to speak or vote that way…
Fake news!
LOL.
If Trump beat Clinton even before serving as presdient he will definitelly beat Harris.
THESE POLLS ARE RIGGED JUST LIKE THE 2020 ELECTIONS WERE.
Trump however did a massive mistake with choosing Vance as a VP. It seems he has no advisors or doesn’t listen to them.
@ayidserlich.
What drop of good will you experice with Harris who will destroy the country and turn it in to China ????