An unusual special election in New York City’s suburbs on Tuesday could be a bellwether in the fight for control of Congress.

Former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat, faces off with Republican Mazi Pilip, a county lawmaker, in a race for a House seat that became vacant when George Santos was expelled from Congress.

The contest, being fought in a district that includes Long Island suburbs and a small corner of Queens, has offered a preview of the political strategies both parties might use in the fall, with the campaigns testing messages on immigration, abortion and public safety.

New York is expected to host a handful of congressional battleground races this year, and the special election could provide clues on how crucial districts might lean in the fall.

Still, forecasting for November could be complicated given that turnout, already expected to be low given the abbreviated race, could be hampered by a storm that dumped several inches of snow on the district on election day. Both campaigns were offering voters free rides to the polls as plows cleared wet slush from the roads.

In the short term, the result could be a factor in ultratight votes in the House, where even a few defectors can upset the Republicans’ narrow majority. The outcome might also play a role in the ongoing process of redrawing congressional district boundaries in New York, with the possibility that Tuesday’s winner could be running in a reconfigured district in the fall.

The unusual midwinter election became necessary after Santos was ousted by his colleagues in December, partway through his first term. Santos won office in what had been a reliably Democratic district partly by falsely portraying himself as an American success story — a son of working class immigrants who made himself into a wealthy Wall Street dealmaker.

But many elements of Santos’ life story were later exposed as fabrications, and he was indicted on multiple charges, including allegations he stole money from Republican donors. He has pleaded not guilty.

Suozzi, who previously represented the district for three terms, campaigned in the centrist lane, distancing himself from progressive policies that have not played well on Long Island and casting himself as a dealmaker who can work with the GOP.

Republicans sought to link Suozzi to criticism over federal immigration policy under Democratic President Joe Biden, a looming political vulnerability for Democrats because of an ongoing influx of migrants in New York. Democrats have framed the race around abortion rights, a centerpiece of their election-year strategy.

Suozzi spent a lot of the campaign talking about the need to strengthen immigration policy. He said he would support a temporary closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to slow the number of migrants into the city, signaling Democrats’ recognition of the political pressures surrounding the issue.

Pilip was born in Ethiopia but left that country at age 12 as part of Operation Solomon, when Israel airlifted some 14,500 Ethiopian Jews to Israel in less than two days as civil war ravaged the Horn of Africa.

She served in Israel’s military as an adult, moving to the U.S. after marrying a Ukrainian American doctor in 2005. In 2021, Pilip was elected to the Nassau County legislature.

Though Pilip publicly identifies as a Republican and won county office under the GOP banner, she is actually a registered Democrat. She says she registered as a Democrat when she got to the U.S. but has drifted away from the party as it has become more liberal. A spokesman said Pilip intends to change her affiliation after the election.

Despite once being a migrant herself, Pilip has hammered Suozzi and Biden over immigration policy. She has argued for additional border policing to stop illegal immigration as well as the construction of a border wall.

Suozzi counterattacked Pilip on abortion, saying she couldn’t be trusted to protect abortion rights in places like New York where it remains legal.

Pilip said she is personally against abortion but wouldn’t force her beliefs on others and would oppose any attempt by Congress to impose a nationwide ban. She has also said mifepristone, an abortion medication, should be available nationally.

In their only debate, Suozzi pushed Pilip to further clarify her position, asking her whether she is “pro-choice.” She did not give a direct answer, instead accusing Democrats of lying about her stance on abortion.

Democrats spent heavily during the campaign to boost Suozzi and retake the district, one of a handful of New York House seats the party wants to flip as part of their plan to win control of Congress. Republicans have dominated on Long Island in recent elections.

“They see that, first of all I’m a very strong candidate. My proven record as a county legislator. My own story is very strong,” Pilip said in an interview. “And they are very nervous.”

Democrats and Republicans will get a chance to fight over the seat again in November, though the battleground may look different.

That’s because the state’s congressional districts are set to be redrawn again in the next few months by court order. Democrats, who dominate state government, are expected to try to craft more favorable lines for their candidates. A bipartisan state commission tasked with drawing the boundaries is scheduled to vote on a map proposal on Thursday.

New York is expected to play an outsize role in determining control of Congress this year, with competitive races in multiple contests in the suburban and exurban rings around New York City.

(AP)